Study On Trade Cost And Its Productivity Effect Of China’s Manufacturing Industries

Trade cost and productivity are the key points of current research in international economic and trade, and have important influence on the development of economic. At present, scholars at home and abroad focus on the calculation methods, factors and effects when they study trade cost and productivity, and few study the relationship between trade cost and productivity, which provides a new research idea and direction for this paper.Based on the panel data of15manufacturing industries during1995to2011, this paper calculated the trade cost and total factor productivity index with Novy (2013) improved gravity model and DEA-Malmquist index method. After the calculation of trade cost and TFP index, this paper build a model of the influencing factors of TFP index by introducing trade cost, FDI, R&D, exports and industrial added value. Particularly, this paper made a simple amendment to the basic model because of the lag of R&D. Then, this paper compared and analyzed the regression results of three models.According to the results, this paper can summarize the following conclusions:1.the trade cost of decreased during1995-2011both on the industry level and country level;2.the TFP index of China’s manufacturing industries increased during1995-2011;3.compared with technical efficiency, the contribution of technological progress to TFP index is greater;4.trade cost and export have the negative influence on TFP index and the influence of trade cost is the greatest among these five variables;5.FDI, R&D and industrial value added have the positive impact on TFP index. Based on these conclusions, this paper presented some policy suggestions.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:study the influence impacts of TFP index based on trade cost and manufacturing industries; consider the lad of R&D and build three models to complete the comparison and analysis.