| The traditional rational people assumption pointed out that as the main economic decision makers, they are perfectly rational in pursuit of profit maximization as their only goal. However, the emergence of behavioral finance questioned the traditional rational people assumption. In recent years, as one of the most important research of behavioral finance, herd behavior appears repeatedly in the stock market. Evidence from large number of financial market research shows that, for some investors actively participate in herding behavior does not make them obtain excess returns, and even participate in their own herd behavior detrimental to investors. In addition, it is showed a positive change in the relationship between the degree of herd behavior and stock prices, which makes many scholars thought that herd behavior is an important cause of the market price fluctuations. Such herd herd mentality is a great challenge to the traditional hypothesis of rational people. Securities analysts as an essential part of the securities market, who in the process of working existence of herd behavior and to what extent will have an important impact on the efficiency of the securities market.In recent years, our capital market becomes more and more mature, more people come into the market, has become the market participants. However, in a market environment of asymmetric information, small and medium investors often suffer losses because of not be informed in time. Their analysis of the listed companies rely more on analysts’earnings forecasts. Currently, analysts publish various reports, through various means and channels, have become important indicator for investors to understand the company’s fundamentals change, affects the way of thinking and behavior of tens of millions of investors. However, from another angle, analysis report do not accurately predicted also cause great risk to the market and investors. Therefore, the analysts forecast accuracy is specify the premise of reasonable investment decision for investors, and for promoting the necessary conditions of optimal allocation of resources and the continued healthy development of the market. With the development of China’s securities market, the scale of the analyst is more and more bigger, especially the sell-side analysts, In China, for the relatively easy ways of obtaining analyst forecasts, both institutional investors and individual investors can get relevant information from the securities analysts’predictions. But herding behavior will reduce the value of the information contained in the forecast report. Based on the research of Weiqiang Xiong and Jun Song(2006), The paper use the data from institutions forecast encyclopedia of stock markets research sample of Shanghai and Shenzhen,extend the data from2years of285data points to10years of79,074data points during2004to2010.Besides,we have quantified the prediction ability of the analyst, integrated using mathematical statistics, together with the normality test and panel regression on the herding behavior of China Securities analyst forecast for empirical analysis, and draw conclusions.Firstly, we give some definitions to securities analysts, herd behavior and related concepts of them in detail, introduced the relevant theoretical and empirical models of herd behavior at domestic and abroad and summarized the research results systematically. Secondly, based on the difference between analyst forecasts over a given period and other analysts predict the average value over the same period, we constructed a indicators of herd behavior, focusing research on the test of herding behavior in analyst earnings forecast, exploring the relationship between herding tendencies and securities analyst characteristics in predicting. Finally, we make a rational analysis for herd behavior. Research found, analyst in earnings forecasts in the exists significantly of herding behavior, the more obvious of analysts’herd behavior, on the contrary, the higher of the earnings estimate accuracy, and this herding behavior is likely to be a rational "pseudo herding behavior"; Factors such as analyst where research institutions of platform and levels, the length of time between forecast day to the end of year, analyst in a given period tracked scale of stock, analyst on specific stock surplus forecast capacity and all analyst average forecast accuracy will have a certain influence to herding behavior; Finally, the herd behavior in Chinese securities market has proved to be a rational "pseudo herding".According to the results of the empirical analysis, the analyst’s personality characteristics and relationship to herd behavior, aiming at "intentional herd behavior" exists on the market put forward policy recommendations, including improving market supervision, securities analysts to change incentives, standard information disclosure system.Paper in empirical research also exists with some insufficient, although some variable (as analyst herd behavior, earning forecast accuracy) in the model use some sample data calculation out, but for analyst some other personality features factors, such as analyst practitioners years and analyst personal capacity of defined, cannot be obtained accurately due to by commercial confidential; for herd behavior of defines method, we only obtained indicators value more approximation0, herd behavior degree more big. But as for herd, how much deviation from the0degree can be considered bold, this paper does not form a relatively clear standard to define it. |
