On The RMB Exchange Rate Based On The HK And Domestic RMB Market And NDF Market

The RMB exchange rate movements of prices actually lesds, by which the market has always been the hot issues of government and academia. Before the advent of RMB HK offshore market, most scholars think that RMB exchange rate movements of prices is controlled by RMB NDF market; At the spot exchange rate of RMB HK offshore market and RMB HK offshore forward market settlement, the forward rate market makes this discussion has become more intense and complicated. To further clarify the problem, in this paper, based on the interest rate parity theory, studies RMB(domestic) spot market, the renminbi NDF market, at the spot exchange rate of RMB HK offshore market and RMB HK offshore forward market, to research the relationship between the four market, in order to analyze the market which holds the issue of RMB exchange rate movements of prices, research results show that the RMB NDF market are single direction to guide renminbi (domestic) spot market and Hong Kong’s renminbi offshore spot market, delivery of Hong Kong offshore RMB forward market for single direction to lead Hong Kong’s renminbi offshore spot market, the current price of RMB exchange rate was mastered by the offshore market. And based on the GARCH model, this paper studied the RMB NDF market outside the territory with the delivery of Hong Kong offshore RMB forward market, the relationship between the delivery of Hong Kong offshore RMB forward market are analyzed by renminbi NDF market volatility with single direction. Through the above analysisi this paper, the current RMB exchange rate movements of prices is still in the hands of the RMB NDF market outside the territory of the conclusion. In the face of this situation, this article from the perspective of academic angle and government policy suggestions are given respectively, and the academic point of this paper holds that on the basis of compaction theory, should continue to follow the relevant currency of RMB HK offshore market data, increase the number of the empirical analysis of the data, in the search for a more appropriate empirical method to analyze four market relations; Government should also be gradually let go of RMB domestic spot market control, promoting the market at the same time, for RMB HK offshore spot market and RMB HK offshore forward market to settlement the financial laws and regulations, to build an open, healthy financial environment, promote the steady and fast development of the HK market.