Research On Fundamental Prediction And Financial Prediction Model Of Listed Companies

With the increasingly fierce market competition, many listed companies are lost in financial trouble, even facing up with survival crisis. Once the listed companies are lost, the interests of investors, creditors and their own are affected. If the likelihood of lost listed companies in the future can be predicted correctly, investors and creditors can protect their own interests ahead, business enterprises can better guard against financial risk, and government departments can better monitor the financial performance of listed companies and ensure securities markets smoothly. A comprehensive, scientific financial prediction system can provide the fundamentals of listed companies and reflect the financial information to investors, creditors, business owners and market supervision department.Based on summarizing the role of stock barometer and financial prediction and combining theoretical and empirical approaches, the paper takes lost companies as the research object, dig the characteristics of lost companies and explore the approach of judging the fundamentals of listed companies in advance. The paper not only establishes the panel logit model of listed companies’financial prediction, but also constructs the financial prediction model based on financial information terminal such as TDX. Finally, a set of effectively financial prediction system is formed. Studies are as follows:Firstly, the paper not only analyzes the historical trend of the lost company, but also studies their characteristics from multiple dimensions, including the industrial distribution and temporal distribution, consecutive lost distribution. In addition, the paper compares the financial mean of lost and no-lost companies as well. Analysis found that lost companies loss differently with industries and the finance is instable and so on.Secondly, the paper establishes the random effect model based on panel data, answering the question whether the lost companies’stock price is a barometer of the fundamentals. The study found that the lost companies’stock price could reflect the fundamentals’information to some extent, in other words, the stock price is a barometer of the fundamentals. What’s more, the study found that the reaction of stock market to the fundamentals of listed companies has a non-synchronization.Thirdly, the paper predicts whether the listed companies are lost in the next year or not through establishing the panel logit regression in use of the financial data of listed companies. The results show that the prediction accuracy of financial prediction based on panel logit model is high, so it can be used to predict the lost probability of the next year through the financial data.Fourthly, taking the fact that financial information terminals can only retrieval the currently financial data and investors’ habit into consideration, the paper establishes the financial prediction model based on the financial information terminals and predicts the lost probability through multiple linear discriminant analysis. Empirical evidence shows that the model has a high accuracy and provides investors an intuitive method which can reflect the coming financial information of the listed companies.