The Study On Development Cycle Of Anhui Real Estate Market And Its Relationship With Bank Credit

Real estate is a subsystem of macroeconomic,its development also has a periodic characteristic,its market characteristics determines its development cycle having its own unique changing rule. The continuous development of the real estate market makes its relationship with the national economy becomes closer and closer.If the volatility of the real estate market is excessive, it will influence the national economy, so it is necessary to research the development cycle of the real estate market. Moreover, the development of the real estate market has strong local, regional characteristics,the real estate market of Anhui Province is in a stage of rapid development, the feature of "health","continuous" is gradually emerging.In1998, China began to implement the reform of the housing system.In order to promote the rapid development of the real estate market,State and Government encourage financial institutions to provide loans to the real estate industry.Since then, the real estate industry has been inextricably linked with the banking industry. Numerous studies have show that the support of bank credit is the protection of the development of real estate market,and the development of the real estate market promote the development of the banking sector in turn. Anhui Province in the structure of financial markets and the credit scale is also different from other areas, so the closeness of bank credit and real estate markets are not the same.On the structural arrangements, the paper comprises two main components:The first part is the theoretical section.By comparing and summaring the relevant literature at home and abroad, the paper puts forward the question to be researched.Then on the basis of referencing the studies of the economic cycle, the paper introduces the theory and measurement methods about the real estate cycle.Finally, against the actual situation of Anhui Province, the paper analyzed the the specific characteristics and development status of the real estate market in Anhui Province and its relationship with the banking industry.The second part is empirical section.This section includes two aspects:Firstly,the paper makes specific analysis about Anhui real estate market to build the various indicators and comprehensive index, obtain the cycle fluctuations figure,in order to analyze the cycle characteristics and trajectory of regional real estate market.Secondly,the paper,by using annual data for2000-2012in Anhui, makes regression analysis between the comprehensive index and bank credit.The results indicate that bank credit has a significant role in promoting the development cycle of real estate market in Anhui Province.Finally, based on the above study, the paper,from two angles of real estate development and bank credit,puts forward policy recommendations about steady development of the real estate market in Anhui Province.