Study On Risk Assessment About Production And Operation Of Vegetable In Hebei Province

As an organic part of agricultural production in Hebei Province, Vegetables possessthe dual nature, natural reproduction and economic reproduction. However, influencedby resource conditions, natural environment, market environment, policy environment,internal environment factors and other uncertain factors, risk in vegetable production inHebei Province causes an uncertain loss of farmers.In order to carry on the reasonable assessment to farmer vegetable productionmanagement risk in Hebei Province, this thesis combines natural reproduction andeconomic reproduction production, two kinds of risk in farmer vegetable production inHebei Province. In the evaluation of production risk, through five kinds of vegetables asthe research object and the actual yield from2002to2012, based on combined effects ofa variety of natural risk and technology risk, after fitting equation of production trends,finding fitting value and then calculating the loss rate, the results show that from big tosmall order, yield loss risk of five kinds of vegetables in Hebei province because ofvarious kinds of natural disasters and technical risk is: eggplant,celery,tomato,cucumber,cabbage. In the evaluation of market risk, production prices from2002to2013quarteras the study object, the actual price and the expected price of vegetables, through ADtest, K-S test and chi square test, the results show the best fitting probability distributionmodel of vegetable price risk: Log-Logistic (3P) model suitable for Celery and Chinesecabbage, Burr (4P) model suitable for cabbage, cucumber, eggplant, Lognormal (3P)model suitable for tomatoes. Through value and risk assessment, the price risk forfarmers in Hebei Province vegetable production management is: celery cabbage, tomato,cabbage, cucumber, eggplant. Finally, the author put forward a series of measures tocontrol the risk.I assessed the risk in Vegetable production and operation of farmers in Hebei, and it isa support for production operations risk management. This has important practicalsignificance to improve the income of vegetable producers in Hebei Province, tomaintain a healthy and orderly development of the vegetable industry to solve ruralissues.