| In the second half of1998, China canceled the welfare housing system, then the housing monetization reform began, there was no longer a housing distribution policy in China,since then China’s real estate industry has entered a new period of rapid development, by the end of2012, real estate investments accounting for nearly60%of investment in fixed assets, so the healthy development of the real estate market is significant for our the national economy. The monetary authorities need more to focus on the macro-control on the real estate market because housing prices is one of the important stuff related to people’s standard life, of course it is essential for steady and rapid growth of the national economy. In addition, real estate assets as the most high-quality investment, the price fluctuations will affect all aspects of the economy, and the impact of monetary policy transmission effects can not be ignored, like how the central bank should implement monetary policy by influencing the real estate price fluctuations, so that the ultimate goal can be achieved. Real estate prices are also making the transmission of monetary policy has become more complex, so that attracts more and more attention of the government and monetary authorities. In this background, the study of how the central bank to use monetary policy instruments affecting real estate prices, and to achieve the ultimate goal of monetary policy is the practical.The main content of this paper is our real estate price transmission mechanism of monetary policy, it is one of asset prices transmission mechanism of monetary policies. In order to realize the goal of macro economy, monetary authorities implement monetary policy to affect the price of real estate, then real estate price changes will affect the consumer’s consumption and investment behavior, and ultimately will affect the growth of the national economy, this transmission mechanism are divided into two areas:the first part is the monetary authorities to use monetary policy affecting the real estate prices; the second link is the impact of fluctuations in real estate prices on consumption, investment.The first chapter is to analyze and summarize the literature of real estate price transmission mechanism of monetary policy. In the second part of this paper, the first is to real estate price transmission mechanism of monetary policy analyze and summarize from the point of view of the commercial banks’ balance sheets, and then review the two links of real estate price transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The third part describes the of the situation real estate market; and recalled the trend of China’s monetary policy since monetary policy of housing reform; moreover, with the reality of the data to analysis two links of real estate price transmission mechanism of monetary policy, and get relevant conclusions:In the first part of the transmission mechanism, interest rates rise and can not effectively prompt the rise, while the increase in the. money supply can effectively push up real estate prices; in the second transmission mechanism links, the wealth effect and the crowding effect dominates at different times in transmission of real estate prices affects comsumption, the real estate investment as an important part of the total investment will have a greater positive promotion of investment effectiveness.The empirical part of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in real estate prices,including three models, and to use ADF tests, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and build VEC models, and get empirical conclusion:The first, rise in money supply and bank credit has a positive role in promoting the real estate prices in the long-term. but the rise of interest rates has poor effect; the second, although real estate prices in the short term there are squeezing effect on consumer spending, but also highlights the long-term wealth effect of asset prices, income are the most positive role in promoting consumer spending; the third, the real estate prices in the long-term has positive effect to investment spending is obvious, but the short-term effects is poor, promote investment in bank credit to the maximum. Thus, on the whole, the real estate price transmission mechanism of monetary policy is smooth, but there are also obstacles, the most obvious is low sensitivity of interest rates to investment and real estate prices, making the interest rate transmission mechanism has some problems.The fifth chapter is to put forward relevant suggestions according to the theoretical analysis and empirical conclusions of real estate price transmission mechanism of monetary policy:the first is to strengthen the construction of the money market, and to create conditions for the interest rate market; secondly, to control the flow of bank credit funds to real estate market; finally to improve the real estate and financial policies, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market. |
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