Research On Leading Index And Its Correlation Based On Accounting Information

Enterprises are micro-foundation of the national economy, a listed company as a public company, has been a focus of concern. Accounting information, reflecting the listed companies’financial position, operating results and cash flows, is one of the most popular information of public concern. Accounting information is not only very important for the enterprise managers,external investors, creditors and tax authorities to management decision making, investment or regulatory basis,but also reveals basic information on economic development and social progress, which have enormous potential for service in macro economic management. Therefore, How to use accounting information services in macro economic management, worth exploring.In this paper, I draw on the macroeconomic prosperity index method, and based on the study of accounting index results, to build leading index based on enterprise’s accounting information system, and this paper explores the correlation between the leading index and the climate index,which are builded with statistical methods. Of this paper, is a way to expand the uses of accounting information, the attempt to improve the value of accounting information, and it’s a development and innovation of the theoretical study of accounting index.Select24quarters from2007to2012of main financial indicators of all A-share listed companies, firstly, by using the methods of the sample median, seasonal adjustment and standardization, we preprocess the financial indicators. And then jet lag correlation analysis, clustering analysis method to determine leading indicators, using principal component analysis method for determining the index weight, draw up a enterprise’s leading index (ELI), industry leading index (ILI) and the whole enterprises leading index (WELI). Finally, calculate the correlation coefficient and distinctiveness between WELI with GDP quarterly index (GDPI) and the enterprise prosperity index compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics (SEPI). This thesis comes to the following conclusions:the related coefficient between WELI and GDPI is0.534, significant at the0.05level, and the two indices have the similar trend, the related coefficient between WELI and SEPI is0.689, significant at the0.01level, and the two indices also have the similar trend. This study found can provid empirical evidence for the accounting information in the role of macro economic surveillance and early warning.