Financial Risk Assessment And Early Warning Research On Overseas Mining Investment

This paper originates from the national social science fund projects of operation and management risk assessment and early warning research on overseas mining investment(Item number: 12CGL008). This thesis centers on overseas mining investment and venture pre-warning, which is analyzed and evaluated through variable weight principle and BP neural network method on the basis of research at home and abroad. The main contents of the thesis are as follows:Firstly, it elaborates the background of the research topic and its theoretical and practical significance. In addition, it gives a comprehensive view on the research progress of financial venture assessment, both the domestic and overseas research progress of the venture pre-warning and the application progress of the venture pre-warning method. Based on the above, the research method along.Next, according to the various causes of the financial risks, this thesis classifies them into three categories: exchange rate risk, interest rate risk, and finance risk. In the light of these three kinds of financial risks, this thesis analyzes the major factors that influence the financial risks, including exchange rate volatility, balance of international payment situation, foreign currency reserve, GDP(Gross Domestic Product), domestic economic growth rate, domestic inflation, the world economic growth rate, financial revenue and expenditure, the real bank loan interest rate and the loan payback period etc. As a result, the financial venture evaluation index system of the overseas mining investment is therefore established. That is the proceeding of empowerment by the expert investigation method, and then the enactment of the index grading regulations and the evaluation grading collection in reference to the index quantification. With the technique application is put forward.Then, the thesis establishes the financial venture evaluation model for the overseas mining investment based on the variable weight principle: it selects eight main countries in which China’s enterprises have invested in the overseas mining as the evaluation objects, and furthermore analyzes their evaluation results and extreme indexes.Finally, it constructs the overseas mining investment financial venture pre-warning model by combining with BP neural network principle, and in reference to the variable weight evaluation result, the study expects the venture pre-warning grade. Hence, this analysis in return sheds light on the venture pre-warning level of the eight invested overseas countries. In addition, it provides China’s enterprises with the appropriate venture prevention and control strategies in reference to the diverse financial risk classifications. So, this research possesses a practical significance as it offers Chinese investors the effective methods to avoid various financial risks in overseas mining investment.According to the research result, it indicates that combining the overseas mining financial venture evaluation model, which is based on the variable weight principle, with the overseas mining financial venture pre-warning model, which is on the basis of the BP neural network, can proceed effectively in practical application. As a result, the established model has both theoretical and practical application value. Therefore, China’s enterprises should cautiously take the financial venture degree into full consideration before making investment in overseas mining.