| With the problem of Sino-US trade relations under weak dollar adjustment, this paper considers that it has more theoretical and practical significances to study the impact of exchange rate on technological level of export than to study its impact on the volume of export trade. Therefore, this paper makes integrated use of comparative and quantitative analysis methods to study this issue comprehensively. It not only demonstrates the transmission mechanism of the impact of exchange rates on export technological level, but also analyzes how exchange rates affect the whole technological level of China’s export and the regional technological level, using constant coefficient model and varying coefficient model and providing empirical evidence for the theoretical analysis of its impact mechanism.First, this paper calculates provincial technological level of export, and on this basis it divides export products into three categories of high level, middle level and low level. Then it makes horizontal and vertical comparative analysis of provincial export technological level according to time, regions, and provinces. This study finds that although the technological level of China’s total exports increases year by year, there are large regional differences in the provincial export technological level, and these differences are becoming increasingly large.Second, this paper discusses the transmission mechanism of the impact of exchange rates on export technological level. From the perspective of production costs, currency appreciation can reduce the cost of goods imported, thus being useful for high-tech products which depend highly on imported goods. From the perspective of market pricing, high-tech products usually have high export price rate flexibility, therefore, manufacturers can raise prices to offset the rising costs. From the perspective of exchange rate flexibility, high-tech products have high price elasticity of demand for exports and low price elasticity of supply, making them be less affected by exchange rate appreciation.Third, using provincial panel data from 2002 to 2008, this paper conducts a fixed effects model to estimate the constant coefficient in order to study the impact of weak dollar adjustment on China’s export technological level. It finds that the weak dollar adjustment can promote to upgrade China’s export technological level. In addition, physical capital, human capital, technology, and exchange rate reform also have positive effects, while the impact of FDI is not significant.Forth, taking into account the imbalance of regional development in China, this paper uses GWR model to estimate variable coefficients in order to study the impact of weak dollar adjustment on provincial export technological level. It finds that the exchange rate, physical capital, human capital and exchange rate reform all have significant spatial variability, while the spatial variability of technological level and FDI is relatively small. Among them, the exchange rate, physical capital and exchange rate reform have less effects on eastern region than on middle and western regions, while human capital has more effects on eastern region than on middle and western regions.Fifth, the paper summarizes the research findings and proposes policy recommendations. In the face of the increasing difference of regional technological level, government should put efforts to exploit the middle and western regions, such as increasing infrastructure and personnel support. Under the background of weak dollar adjustment, it ought to transmit trade focus from low-technology products to high-tech products, and improve the RMB exchange rate market formation mechanism to increase exchange rate flexibility. In addition, it should guide private capital investment, develop education and scientific research, promote the accumulation of physical and human capital and improve technology level. |
