Under The Framework Of The Money Supply Based On DSGE Research On Economic Fluctuations

Since reform and opening up in 1978, China’s rapid economic growth, at the same time also went through several times of economic fluctuation, and the width of fluctuation in the big is the world of rare. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth at high speed, the peak at 14.7%; And in the case of low speed, its only 3.6%, the gap between more than 11%. And during this period our country inflation volatility compared with gross domestic product (GDP) is more obvious. For such a huge range of economic fluctuation, many theoretical and practical workers can not help but ask: what is the reason or what factors lead to large fluctuations in economic growth in China?In this paper, we study the idea is that in the presence of government dominant characteristics of the economic system, from the perspective of the central bank money supply to answer to the question, and hope to get some policy conclusions. Method based on the new Keynesian build a monetary DSGE model of supply shocks, mainly combining with 1 quarter of 1996 to 2013 fourth quarter GDP, gross domestic product deflator CPI inflation and M2 data, calibration of model parameters and the bayesian estimation, and to explore the formation of stochastic trend in the composition of economic fluctuations in our country and the central bank in the intermediary target of monetary policy-the real-time regulation of money supply mechanism. Through regression analysis we found that the VAR model are respectively on a unit of currency supply shocks, the society for a unit output standard residual impulse response to the money supply shock results show that if money supply shock to surge forward, then the social total output of monetary supply shock response at an early stage will be zero, and then rapidly rising, will reach the peak of 0.25% in the fourth period, slow down, after about 16 will return to the steady state level, a single hump shape change profoundly indicates that expansionary monetary policy on output in the short term pulling effect is significant, but in the long run, the output effect of monetary policy will gradually weaken. From inflation to a unit impulse response of monetary supply shocks are graphical trends, inflation in the early impact impulse response value is zero, then rise, in 5 to peak 0.21%, after a downward trend, in the period of 20 or so back to the steady state level, that shows the expansionary monetary policy pull output growth in the short term, at the same time also will drive the rise in the price level. In DSGE models, when the money supply increased by 1% under the condition of the change of output, output in the second period to adjust quickly to a positive response, slow decline after the peak at about 4 to 1.08383%, at about 16 return to a steady state level; In the impact of the intensity of the same currency, inflation was positively to response in early, in the third period to peak 1.1623%, then slow down, steady-state levels around 17 issue of stepwise regression. Visible, through DSGE models and bayesian parameter estimation of the impulse response with the traditional econometric VAR model impulse response which is formed by the regression analysis to a great extent, is the same.It should be pointed out that:in this article are simulated macroeconomic fluctuations, impact and monetary impact technology, government spending shocks work together; In the four impact, impact is the only can be used as a monetary policy variables play a role, and ultimately the direct and indirect effects of output and inflation factor.