Research On Relationship Between China’s Commodity Futures Prices Index And Inflation

In recent years, with the development of China’s financial market. China’s futures market has got ahead quickly,also the market systems and policies have improved a lot. Specifically new varieties added. Under the background of the rapid development of the capital market, the future market had introduced the financial variety as 300 index futures, the prices of the domestic and international are also highly linked by the market, Agricultural products such as bean is affected by the producing areas like United States, at the same time,The copper is mainly affected by the impact of LME. One hand,the close ties from the futures price to the spot price,the other hand,from the spot price to the level of inflation, have led to the theory between futures prices and the level of inflation, also provides a theoretical basis for this article.Futures Price Index is a comprehensive index as a measure of the price, considered all kinds of factors such as mobility 、 weight 、 month cycle, and is expected by corporations and institutional investors, so it can be more comprehensive, more accurate to reflect the price changes, in recent years, the role of the futures price index not only limited to expect the commodity prices, but extend to measure the areas of national life, and had a strong correlation with the domestic commodity prices. In China, the consumer price index and the producer price index are usually used as measures of inflation targets. Therefore, we choose Nan Hua Futures Price Index and domestic CPI、PPI to do the empirical analysis. By ADF test、Granger causality test、VAR dynamic model,、impulse response function and variance decomposition methods to investigate whether exist a relationship between China’s overall price index futures and CPI、PPI,also verify its ability as a leading indicator of inflation for making guiding significance in the economy.