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Risk Measurement And Evaluation Of The Money Market Found

Posted on:2016-12-23Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:L LiFull Text:PDF
GTID:2309330464453564Subject:Applied Statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
China began in 1999 on the theory to explore the development of money market fund. In fact our first money fund; now Fuli Hua Foundation, was founded in December 2003. So far, China’s money market funds have been existing for more than ten years but previously they did not get much attention from investors. In recent years, thanks to the incoperation of Internet technology and the IMF, as the "Baby Region". There has been a raise in high-yield, high liquidity, low threshold and other features to attract a large number of investors. As a result, the country has seen an unprecedented IMF development. The high yield is often associated with high risk. For example, in 2008 the United States had the IMF bankruptcy case. The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers triggered a chain reaction that set off a massive wave of money market fund redemptions. In contrast, China’s money market fund regulation is not perfect, but should risk money market funds for quantitative analysis.This paper selected a sample of 50 money market funds in May 2013 covering a seven-year yield of sequence analysis. This was supplemented by programming the holidays with missing data using time series analysis software between 19-30 December 2014-Eviews6.0. Sequence analysis showed that the yield is not normally distributed, with a fluctuation characterized by the "fat tail", i.e. heteroscedasticity phenomenon.Under the assumption that the distribution of the samples was established, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) class model, with a minimum Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), has been optimized with an ARCH class model. In order to verify the rationality of the model, after ARCH-LM test, the results show that the model is no longer residual in sequence but has significant heteroscedasticity. Therefore, the ARCH class model can portray yield volatility clustering sequence.VAR value was estimated based on the ARCH class model of the sample, respectively. It showed that the value of the Fund’s risks are relatively small, the difference is not very clear and the level of performance of the Fund can not be evaluated. Therefore, in order for the level of performance of a sample to make comprehensive evaluation of the IMF, the paper introduces a risk-adjusted index, which includes RAROC indicators. The index took into account the benefits and risk factors which can curb excessive investment behavior by selecting the indicator for investors with a reference value of money market funds.
Keywords/Search Tags:Money market funds, Risk Measurement, ARCH model, RAROC indicators, VAR value
PDF Full Text Request
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