The Impact Of Chinese Credit Policy On Economic Fluctuations

A large number of economic facts shows that contraction and expansion of credit has become an important driving force for economic fluctuations.Whether it is the normal operation of the macroeconomic or microeconomic, will be affected from the credit volatility and its impact is not limited to the financial level, to a certain extent, also reflects the development trend of a country’s economic performance and macroeconomic policy orientation. Therefore, from a credit point of view to analyze the reasons of fluctuations in economic fluctuations, become one of the key issues of current concern.Basing on the theory of the economic fluctuations and credit volatility theory,to establish credit fluctuations analytical framework of economic fluctuations.Through the use of theoretical analysis, to describe the phase characteristics of credit volatility and economic fluctuations objectively.After using HP filter for credit and economic fluctuation component of decomposition, from volatility comovement two characteristics specific facts to analyze the influence of fluctuations of credit to economic fluctuations.The results show that the fluctuation of credit is procyclical fluctuation characteristics, generally leading to economic fluctuations around four quarters, and exits a long-term fluctuations in the economy, lasting effects.In order to further the impact of economic fluctuations in the transmission mechanism of credit volatility studies to GDP expenditure method of accounting constitutes the basis for the impact from fluctuations in consumer credit, investment and net exports volatility starting to build credit volatility transmission mechanism for economic fluctuations.Among them, in the same direction and the consumer credit volatility fluctuations, fluctuations in the opposite direction with the import and export, and investment volatility showed a slight negative relationship in the near future; about lagging consumer credit volatility fluctuation 3-5 quarters, five quarters leading investment volatility and keep up with import and export in the same frequency negative relationship.The analysis shows that the fluctuation of the credit has a certain influence for the economic fluctuations.We should continue to establish the credit analysis perspective of economic fluctuations on the base of the deepen understanding of economic fluctuations and volatility of credit, for a more systematic analysis of interaction between them.Furthermore, it should from the macro and micro environment and other aspects of the foundation, and continuously improve the effectiveness of our credit policy, making it better with the economic and financial development in harmony, to ensure the smooth and effective implementation of the development of China’s economic policies and the whole society and economy.