The Reserch Of Qingdao Second-hand Housing Turnover Fluctuation

From 1998, Qingdao released second-hand housing transactions tentatively to now, the role of the secondary housing market in the entire real estate market has become increasingly evident in the play, and even the property market has been propped up half the sky. The last two years, especially in 2014, Qingdao’s housing market stimulated by the major spate of good news, but from a measure of market activity volume indicators, the market’s reaction was warm but not fire. This paper is to analyze the fluctuation of second-hand housing turnover in Qingdao,based on the perspective of policy control. First, it analyzes the characteristics of the secondary housing market in Qingdao and the reasons for the rapid development of simplely, after the implementation of macro-control policies to sort out the country, focusing on the last two years, Qingdao Real Estate Deal interpretation and on the basis of second-hand housing transactions the amount of future volatility trends predicted theoretically; in the factors affecting the second-hand housing turnover qualitative and empirical analysis, by building the model of ARMA(p, q) to predict the future trend of second-hand housing turnover, although real estate incentives frequent policy, but because of the short-term objective reasons not within the second-hand housing turnover rose sharply, basically will be maintained at a relatively stable position, with the theoretical results of this analysis are consistent with, and finally how to promote second-hand housing the healthy development of the market, the housing market to build a sound system proposed.