| Over the years, SMEs have some characteristic, such as less capital, less fixed assets, corporate credit is not higher and so on. it is resulted in having a difficult to do direct financing in banks, but also the most important factor in restricting its development is financing, inventory financing is an indirect important way to solve difficulties of financing to SMEs.In recent years, inventory financing is a very active mode of financing in the financial markets. SMEs let its raw materials, semi-finished products as the pledge to commercial bank loans, so that a third-party companies that is cargo logistics company would regulate this pledge, transfer possession of the collateral, but also achieve the purpose of SME financing. It not only to help SMEs to solve problems about the inherent in financing, but also bring huge rewards of financial institutions. However, inventory financing as a new financing model, there have been corresponding risk in the process, such as price risk as collateral, legal and regulatory issues, mortgage rates setting risk, corporate default risk and so on. Controling various inventory financing risk is important for the development of inventory financing. Among the inventory financing risk, price risk as collateral and the default risk of SMEs are the focus of all the risks, but also the focus of this paper study.We analyze the risk point of the inventory financing business through the functional role of three main business:financial institutions, logistics enterprises and SMEs. It’s important to propose the way of controling price risk as collateral and corporate default risk. Firstly, we propose collateral price forecasting model based on fractal theory in order to control the price risk of inventory financing. In this paper, we select the number of 462 HRB335φ10 rebar’s price data in Sichuan region from January 2011 to December 2012, using rescaled range method and with the empirical analysis by Matlab7.0 software, forecast prices after a month’s and have a comparison on predicted and actual prices, obtained collateral prices Hurst index to forecast for the price. Secondly, after verify the validity of the prediction model, we make a simplified enneagram psychological questionnaire survey of SME leaders form the the perspective of psychological dynamics, it to explore whether the breach of corporate personality play a decisive role. Combined with the end of the collateral price that we have predicted, using expert scoring method to estimate the default rate on corporate and empirical analysis of this model. Finally, we combinate these two models to get a bank risk alert values and make estimates and get a reasonable way of controling the business risk.The result show that the three body in stock pledge business, whether it is market risk of logistics enterprise, regulatory risk of commodities, or the risk of collateral selection, setting risk in pledge rate, operational risk, moral hazard and other related price fluctuations related to the pledge of commercial banks, price volatility is the key risk point; The forecasting model of price is useful, the maximum error of the rebar prices to predict the subsequent 30 days is 1.3%, the smallest error is 0.05%, that this model can predict the stock pledge business collateral in price accurately. Leaders have a strong individualism in SMEs. business leaders are divided into nine kinds of personality types, companies are divided into five kinds types. which can estimate the default risk of the enterprise effectively based on the above price forecasting model, specifically see price-default table. We will put forward relevant policies based on the effectiveness of these two kinds of models, control or reduce the risk of inventory financing effectively, it can improve the efficiency of pledge financing significantly. |
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