The Prediction Research Of Wooden Products Import And Export In China Based On CGTM

Wooden product for the development of the world has an irreplaceable role, the supply and demand of each country forest products and the import and export trade is a profoundly affects the country’s economic change and social stability. Our research describes the forest resource status and trends in China in recent years, estimates the elasticity of wooden forest products supply and demand function. CGTM model is established to predict 2013-2030 China wooden forest products supply, demand, import and export trade trends, and analyzed the effects of tariff barriers and non-tariff barriers, providing theoretical references for China’s timber market development. The Results show that, the main wooden products import and export trade in China still presents the fast growth in 2013-2030, embodied in a large number of raw material products imports such as log and sawnwood, a large number of plywood exports, but plywood import growth rate has a tendency to decline. Domestic timber supply ability has improved, China’s major source of woody forest products supply problems tend to be better. But, domestic supply of wood structure may not be able to meet the demand, it still higher external dependency. Through the policy simulation four hypothesis, this paper draws the cancellation of tariff barriers have positive effects on China’s timber trade, and the larger; In the case of cancellation of tariff barriers, limiting log export policy of China’s timber trade still has positive influence, but the cancellation of tariff barriers has certain inhibitory effect, influencing range is more obvious; in the case of eliminating tariff barriers, the technical barriers on China’s timber trade is rendered positive influence, but it has inhibition to the cancellation of tariff policy, influencing extent is not limit to the log export; to continue Forest certification make Chinese logs, sawn timber and wood pulp import trade change tends to be stable, but for China plywood trade changes more turmoil, it still has certain effect to offset.Combining the above analysis, policy recommendations for China’s forest products trade as follow: 1, improving forest products import and export trade policies, perfecting our country forest product related technical standards and norms, establishing national forest certification system and standard, and strengthens the communication and cooperation and the government’s new guide for timber supply channels; 2, improving the fiscal subsidy policy of forestry industry,making forest products processing technology innovation and improvement.