Comparative Study On The Robustness Of Monetary Policy Rules Under The Condition Of Uncertainty

With the development of computer technology and modern statistical theory, DSGE models have become an important tool for measurement of contemporary macroeconomic analysis, is widely used in various aspects of macroeconomic analysis.This paper is fully absorb and learn from the outcome that have been studied by the domestic and foreign scholars in the related area, make some comparison study on the robustness of monetary policy instruments under uncertainty rules, using an new Keynesian DSGE model analysis framework under an open economy. Firstly, we make an simple introduction that what are the idea of the structure and processing methods of DSGE model.And then, based on the related research by foreign scholars, we structure an New Keynesian DSGE model that suitable for China’s national conditions under the open economy. Finally, under the condition of open economy, we introduce uncertainty factors to the new Keynesian Phillips curve, the IS curve, the asset price decision equation, the exchange rate determination equation and the equation of international capital flow behavior. Under the three cases that are the worst case with the impact of uncertainty, ignore the uncertainty and the approximate state in between, give the comparative analysis of international commodity prices, foreign output gap, and monetary policy rules impact to domestic inflation and output. The results showed that the fully considering the impact of uncertainty can reduce the related factors impact to domestic inflation and output; Under the precondition of robustness, the effect of quantitative and the price rules of monetary policy tools to control inflation problem effect is basically the same, but to the ecomomy growth, the quantitative rules of monetary policy tools is better than the price one.