Study On The Contagion Mechanism Of Opening Risk Of Emerging Security Markets In The BRICS Countries

With the development of economic globalization and international financial integration, emerging stock markets opening increasingly become the main trend of financial development in emerging economies. In the political, economic back ground of different, emerging market economies of the securities market opening degree irregular. Emerging stock markets open, one hand can promote development, financial investment boom, promote rapid economic growth; on the other hand is very easy to cause the transmission of external shocks, the market volatility, triggered by the financial crisis and the economic crisis.Duality theory circle emerging securities market opening of the existence of two distinct tendencies: one view is advocated to continue to increase the depth and breadth of the securities market opening, another view is that emerging market countries open market conditions are not ripe, shall be restored to control policy and legal constraints to prevent the occurrence of financial, financial and the economic crisis.With regard to this problem, this paper selected the BRICs as the research subject, the contagion effect of BRICs system within the emerging open securities market risk, from the time sequence characteristics of each member in the system between the securities market as the foundation, study its open risk contagion effect and the channel of contagion, to analyze the infection characteristics of emerging stock market open the risk from infectious path different infection significantly and infectious intensity. This paper will be based on the conclusion of empirical test, puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to deal with the risk of emerging stock markets opening.The thesis firstly elaborates the background and significance, the literature review, based on the previous research achievements and shortcomings, puts forward the research emphases and method of this thesis, gives the innovation point of this article. And then give an overview of the emerging securities market and the theory of evolution, the BRICs formation and securities market opening process and the contagion theory and its theory development process.The thesis constructs the theoretical model for the study of emerging stock markets open risk contagion mechanism. For the emerging open securitiesmarket risk contagion theory to explain, analyzes the risks facing emerging securities market opening and the reasons, the theoretical model of contagion effect based on Masson, divides the contagion effect of emerging stock markets opening risk is the monsoon effect, spillover effect and net contagion, and proxy variables for each sub effect by selecting. Then the BRICs members the opening of securities market risk analyses univariate descriptive statistical analysis and time sequence, grasp the basic characteristics of. Finally, the content and form of the spatial panel model is explained, and the physical, non physical spatial weight matrix was constructed, the final set in this paper, empirical research model.The empirical part is the core of the full text, from the spatial correlation test and spatial econometric model to estimate the two aspects to explain fully the contagion effect in the system of the BRICs emerging open securities market risk, spatial econometric analysis from the physical space and the non physical space of two sub, and compares the final empirical conclusion in two aspects. Lastly display the conclusion and policy implications, summarizes and refines the content of this study, the conclusion shows the main study, and puts forward corresponding targeted policy recommendations.