The Research Of The Formation Of Our Country’s Inflation Expectation Under The Perspective Of Public Learning Behavior

In recent years, China’s economy is developing rapid; the State council executive meeting has suggested that the moderately easy monetary policy and fiscal policy should be used at present, however, these policies have expanded the social demand, inevitably cause some inflation pressure. The problem of inflation has long been the attention of the society. Since financial crisis erupts, the State Council has repeatedly stressed to the risk of inflation and inflation expectations. In this context, the study of inflation expectations and public behaviors on inflation expectations is helpful to manage inflation expectations from the perspective of residents, and promote the stable development of economy.First of all, on the basis of the research literature at home and abroad, this paper briefly presents the public learning and inflation expectations theories which include the definition, classification, characters of the public learning and the formation mechanism, influencing factors of the inflation expectations.Secondly, based on the different formation mechanism of inflation expectations, we analyze the effects of the public rational learning and perceptual learning on them. In the rational expectations hypothesis, the public has self learning ability, who can make full use of the information, constantly learning, and update forecast; in the process of adaptive learning, the public can use the existing economic data, using different learning algorithms, such as recursive least squares method to estimate the model and carry on macroeconomic forecast, when they get the new data, they will update the model. In addition, the central bank plays an important role in the perceptual learning; and it is also important to offer proper guidance from the mainstream media (newspapers, television, etc).Thirdly, by consulting the People’s Daily during the period of from 2001 to 2012, we adopt the assignment method to build the media information disclosure index. Moreover, base on quarterly data of Consumers Saving Survey, this paper figures out consumers’ inflation expectation using improved C-P method.Finally, we use SVAR model to study the effect of the public perceptual learning on the inflation expectation further. This paper concludes that the media information disclosure plays a greater role in inflation expectations than the central bank information disclosure. Therefore, managing inflation expectations should be integrated use of media information disclosure and the central bank information disclosure, and carefully use actual interventions.