| The year 2014 is recognized as the "first year" of comprehensively deepen reform, which pays much attention to tax reform. In the first half of this year,the tax revenue has grown 8.5% compared with last year. While the rate of the GDP growth is only 7.4%. It is that the growing rate of revenue higher than GDP concerns us a lot. Along with the rapid growth of fiscal revenue by tax, macro tax burden constantly improve. People generally believe that China’s macro tax burden is too high. In theory, there exists a macro tax burden level for maximizing economic growth. Therefore, we’d better study the optimal macro tax burden level currently.Fiscal revenue in the proportion of GDP is an indicator measuring the macro tax burden scale. Thus, this paper studies on the transformation of macro tax burden to proportion of fiscal revenue in GDP. Firstly, it analyzes the current situation of China’s fiscal revenue accounted for the proportion of GDP, and through the international comparison, it gets the conclusion that macro tax burden lever is too high in China.Secondly, it concerns the relationship between macro tax burden and economic growth in China by VAR model, which shows that the macro tax burden has a negative effect on economic growth, and fiscal expenditure has a positive effect on economic growth. Finally, through the expansion of Barro model to estimate the optimal macro tax burden, it suggests the optimal proportion of GDP is about 15%. There are two innovations in this paper.On one hand, it redefines and counts three caliber of China’s fiscal revenue in the proportion of GDP. Particularly it suits for large diameter proportion of data on international comparisons conducted in-depth study; On the other hand, the financial expenditure is involved in Barro model, and proposed the level of output maximization and all elements of national economy productivity was maximized to two goals to make estimates of fiscal revenue in the proportion of GDP in its basis, the estimation results will be more in line with the national conditions of China. Policy recommendations:fiscal reform of our country needs to put tax cuts as the focal point.Only to make the fiscal revenue in the proportion of GDP to the optimal level of about 15%, it helps to maximize economic growth. |
