Study Of Monetary Policy And Bank Risk-taking In China

In recent years, the studies of monetary policy transmission mechanism have become a hot issue of macroeconomics, and have achieved some achievements. However, these traditional research analysis mainly focus on monetary channel and credit channel, they tend to ignore the risk factors in the role of monetary policy transmission channels. Anyway, the global financial crisis triggered by the subprime crisis of 2007, makes people be aware of the importance of risk factors, and begin to pay close attention to the relationship between the bank risk-taking and monetary policy, carefully researching the theory about the bank risk-taking channel of monetary policy. Reviewing the realistic significance of the transmission mechanism, we found that it is crucial for monetary authorities to make monetary policy, to promote economic growth and to maintain the stability of the financial system. Therefore, it is very necessary for us to deeply study and explore the bank risk-taking channel of monetary policy.Although the bank risk-taking channel of monetary policy has been put forward as early as in 2008, but the research about it is relatively scattered, still did not form a complete theoretical system until now. In order to clarify the mechanism, this article firstly comb and refine the theoretical system of monetary policy transmission mechanism, and then draw lessons from the review and summarize of domestic and foreign empirical research, to lay a solid foundation for later empirical analysis. Then, based on annual data from 2004 to 2013 about 20 commercial Banks in China for samples, this article carrys on the empirical analysis through static panel data model and PVAR model, to test under different kinds of tools of monetary policy, whether or not the bank risk-taking channel exists in China, and compare the contribution size of quantitative tools and price tools of bank risk-taking channel of monetary policy. Finally, based on the empirical analysis results, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations, in order to provide reference for promoting the economic growth of China and the stability of the financial system.According to the previous research thought, in this paper, the organizational structure is as follows:the first chapter of this article introduces the research background, the research significance, the research ideas, the content arrangement and the innovation and deficiency. Literature at home and abroad are reviewed in section 2, which is divided into two parts. Firstly, we comb the theories of the monetary channel, the credit channel and the bank risk-taking channel, and summarize the related empirical analysis. Secondly, we study the influence factors of the bank risk-taking channel of monetary policy. Chapter three studys whether or not the bank risk-taking channel exists in china through static panel data model, under different kinds of tools of monetary policy. Chapter four tests the contribution size of different kinds of tools of monetary policy on bank risk-taking channel through PVAR model. Chapter five summarizes empirical analysis, and advances corresponding policy recommendations.In this paper, the research confirmed that no matter under the condition of quantitative tools of monetary policy, or under the condition of price tools, the bank risk-taking channel of monetary policy are always existing, namely the bank risk-taking and monetary policy has a significant negative correlation relationship, loose monetary policy will promote commercial banks to take on more risk, indicating that the monetary policy is neutral. And through the variance decomposition, we found that the quantitative tools of monetary policy contribute more than the price tools of monetary policy on bank risk-taking channel. In addition, this article also feature variables as well as the bank factors and macro environment factors make an empirical analysis and instructions of the impact on bank risk-taking. The results show that bank risk taking has significantly negative correlation with its capital and liquidity levels, and has significantly positive correlation with its efficient and profit levels, but the relationship with its scale level is not strong; Macro factors have a negative correlation relationship with the bank risk-taking. Both GDP growth rate and the improvement of macroeconomic expectations index, can make bank reduce the risk-taking, contrary to our previous assumptions, we need conduct further research.