Evaluation Of Tourism Industry Development Potential Based On The Concept Of Green Growth

The tourism industry potential refers to the ability which is hidden in its current development, and it is able to be stimulated to be successfully transformed into tourism competitiveness, thus contributing to the tourism industry becoming stronger, continually improving tourism economy benefits and strengthening the sustainability of the tourism industry. As a famous tourism city and summer resort of China, Dalian is in an urgent need for its tourism development, which is of great significance to its economic development. The concept of green growth aims at changing the economy as a whole and making it going towards the development model that is featured with "low-carbon, efficient resource utilization and being socially inclusive", that is, a long-term strategic framework on a global level. The concept focuses on three ideas:coordination, inclusiveness and sustainability. Dalian tourism industry development potential reflects the hidden development ability and prospects for the future, so the evaluation is a comprehensive measurement of the future tourism development. Evaluation of Dalian tourism potential on the basis of green growth is not only able to clearly identify tourism development trend under the guidance of the new economic policy, but also dig into its potential for any improvement and thus achieve its sustainable development.Guided by the concept of green growth, this thesis takes Dalian tourism as the research object and evaluates Dalian tourism development potential from three aspects:potential security forces, support forces and market development potential.First of all, the thesis sets up the evaluation index system of the tourism industry development potential under the ideology of green growth. It mainly includes social economy, resources and environment subsystem, reflecting harmony; quality of life, tourism experience system, reflecting inclusiveness and natural capital, policy support system, reflecting sustainability. Combined with tourism potential security forces, support forces and market development potential systems, we have identified 12 factors and 54 indicators, such as natural resources security forces and tourism infrastructure social security forces.Secondly, we collect the relevant statistical data during 2003-2012, and predict the index data of Dalian tourism development potential during 2013-2017 with initial value revised GM (1,1) model.Finally, according to the established index system, the thesis realizes revaluation with initial value revised GM (1,1) model combined with grey relational method from four aspects: the security force, support force, market potential and comprehensive potential. What’s more, we have studied Dalian tourism’s changing trend during 2003-2017 in both sub- and all-dimensions of the development potential. Therefore, we put forward some countermeasures and suggestions to enhance the tourism potential of Dalian under the new economic policy in order to provide some reference for tourism-related managers to explore the potential and to realize the conversion from potential to competitiveness.