Study On The Influence Of The Macroeconomics On The Capital Structure Of The Listed Real Estate Companies

Capital structure, which generally means the component proportion of the enterprise capital, has an intimate relation with the enterprise value, governance structure and the operation risk. Since 1950 s, capital structure has been the most important research topic. Lots of researchers study this area not only in theory, but also do empirical study on the factors influencing the capital structure in the firm level and then in the industry level. The research in the macroeconomic level appears in recent years. Compared with other industries, the real estate industry has higher exposure to the macroeconomics. As a national pillar industry, the healthy development of real estate industry will not only help safeguard the people’s livelihood, ease social contradictions, but also have a profound impact on the stable operation of the market economy. Combined with the inside and outside effects, it is meaningful to analyze the impact of macroeconomics on the real estate industry. In recent years, most of the study on factors are based on the microcosmic perspective. It is rare to see literatures based on the macro level.This research, based on the viewpoint of macroeconomics, analyzes the influence of macroeconomics on the listed real estate companies(LREC). The first part is the literature review. The second part is the analysis of the current situation of LREC’s development, financing channels and the current capital structure. The basic theories used in the paper are Trade-off Theory, Pecking Order Theory, Market Timing Theory and other classic capital structure theories. Based on the current developing situation of LREC, such as high asset-liability ratio, little financing channels, excessive proportion of bank loans, the paper selects the macro economic cycle, the credit scale, the market credit default risk, interest rate and stock market returns as macroeconomic variables, with the company size, profitability and debt guarantees as control variables, and selects the sample of 98 LREC that were listed on the Chinese main board before 2003. The third part is the empirical analysis. The results are as follows. The debt-to-asset ratio changes against the period. The return of stock market positively influences the debt-to-asset ratio. There are negative relationship between the credit risk and the debt-to-asset ratio. There is no relationship between the credit quota and the debt-to-asset ratio. According to the results above, the last part gives some policy suggestions, limitations of this research and the future research prospect.