Financial Early Warning Of The Manufacturing Listed Companies By Extreme Learning Machine

Manufacturing industry as the pillar industry of national economy, the transformation and economic growth in our country plays an important role in the process, is the main power to promote the economic development of our country, so it is necessary to look at potential crisis in manufacturing industry. Manufacturing listed companies as a representative of the manufacturing industry, its development to a certain extent can represent level of development of manufacturing industry as a whole. Influenced by domestic demand, exports and industry transformation, our country manufacturing industry is facing unprecedented difficulties, some manufacturing strong province successively appeared manufacturing failures, visible current manufacturing enterprises are facing market risk and policy risk further. At the same time, because our country manufacturing industry has a high degree of dependence on bank loans, lead to higher asset-liability ratio than other industry generally, financial risk is bigger. But, our country manufacturing industry listed companies in financial crisis early warning is still in its infancy, the lack of system theory for guidance. At the same time, because of the special background and manufacturing listed companies financial crisis early warning and the complexity of the cause in the process of actual production and operation application of the financial crisis warning manufacturing listed companies are numbered.Manufacturing listed companies in the face of the above situation, shall do a good job in financial crisis early warning and make the enterprise in the face of complex and changeable external economic policy environment more confident, calm response. Therefore, the establishment of manufacturing listed companies financial crisis warning model can make the enterprise timely understand their finances, found that there may be a financial crisis, take measures to prevent the occurrence of financial crisis, it is necessary for the enterprise’s survival.Therefore, this article on the manufacturing industry listed enterprises financial early warning research, in reference to previous financial early warning and extreme learning machine on the basis of the research, construct the financial crisis early warning model for the manufacturing industry listed companies. This paper selects the 82 manufacturing listed companies as the research sample, 19 indexes as indicators of the model, by the methods of statistics screened exist significant difference of index model, finally using extreme learning machine learning and classification of the sample to prove this is constructing early warning model of financial crisis has practicability.The research shows that the comprehensive indexes have a significant effect on the financial crisis warning of the manufacturing enterprises.. The financial situation of enterprise is influenced not only by financial factors, but also by non-financial privacy.. So in the selection of early warning indicators of the financial crisis, the addition of non financial indicators, the empirical results show that the construction of financial crisis early warning model of these indexes is effective; the results of empirical research show that three years ago can limit learning machine manufacturing enterprises listed on the financial crisis early warning model has good applicability to me the listed manufacturing enterprises based on the construction of this paper, it can accurately predict the financial crisis of the listed companies, the extreme learning machine was used to research on early warning of financial crisis has proved feasible; through the construction of the model can be seen, ST companies and non ST companies ratio, cost profit rate, difference of accounts receivable the turnover rate, the rate of return on total assets of four indexes of three years has been significant in speed, that the listed manufacturing enterprises should pay attention to the short-term repayment ability, take measures to reduce unnecessary expenses, accounts receivable analysis and change strategy to improve working efficiency and ultimately improve the profitability of enterprises, to avoid the financial crisis.This article main contribution is to study the realistic meaning and the innovation of the model building method. In view of the manufacturing industry in the important position of the national economy, do a good job in manufacturing listed companies financial risk management, constructing financial crisis warning has a strong practical significance. Furthermore this paper introduces extreme learning machine in financial crisis warning research, build a financial crisis warning model suitable to China’s manufacturing industry listed companies and the validation and satisfying results are obtained. Finally provides the concrete measures to help manufacturing listed companies in our country prevention and response to the financial crisis. This a set of complete research not only on manufacturing listed companies financial crisis early warning model of building a strong guiding significance, also provides a new financial crisis warning research train of thought.