| In recent years, the errors of the financial report were revised and the retroactive adjustments of the financial restatement events occur frequently. It caused investors to doubt the company’s profit situation and the ability of sustainable development, even it maybe cause the company’s share price fierce volatility. This crisis has already caused the attention of the relevant departments, at this time, it is especially important for early warning of financial restatements crisis. Also worth mentioning is the core profit, an important index to reflect the profitability and development prospects of the company’s financial report, is a crucial reference for investors to make investment decisions. Although the financial restatements may cause a serious impact on the interests of investors, the financial restatements involving core profit is more likely to make investors’ confidence defeat, and the depth of doubt the company’s actual profits and the ability of sustainable development, so that the company’s share price violent volatility. Thus, based on the early warning of China’s listing Corporation financial restatement of the crisis, it is necessary to further warn the financial restatement crisis involves the core profit. How to early warn the financial restatement crisis is helpful and useful for the relevant regulatory authorities to improve the financial restatements laws and regulate the listing corporations’ ’ financial reports, and protect the interests of investors. Also, it is a crucial and must be solved problem in academic.High level of corporate governance can strongly ensure true content of financial report, improve the reported quality of financial report, reduce the probability of financial restatement crisis for financial reporting mistakes. At the same time, the level of corporate governance was one of the most important causes in many non-financial causes of lead to the financial restatement crisis, Therefore, that how to measure the level of corporate governance, that if the corporate governance not only had an important function for relieving the financial restatement crisis and but also had the key function in the Precision of the early warning of financial restatement crisis, that if it could low the probability of causing financial restatement crisis through improving the level of the corporate governance, was a key point in the research of the paper.Now, the financial restatement content, market reflection, characteristic of the financial restatement, influence factors of normative and theory discussion and an empirical study, was the focus of financial restatement’s research. Even though it had an important function to reduce the bad effect of financial restatement crisis that was for investors and stock market and improve the level of reporting the company information, but they just used the standard analysis method or the method of empirical analysis to analyze after the financial restatement crisis of listing corporation happened, neither put themselves in the advance prevention’s place to have a early warning for the listing corporation, nor considered the comprehensive efficiency index, especially not considered that the efficiency index of corporate governance affect the financial restatement crisis. At the basis of the existing research about the early warning of listing corporation’s financial restatement crisis, the paper focused on the point that how to build the index system of listing corporation’s financial restatement crisis, and, through the index reduction method, pick out the character index and put it into SVM intelligent method to build the model about the early warning of listing corporation’s financial restatement crisis, especially mainly researched how to deep build the index system of listing corporation’s financial restatement crisis about the core profit. So it was obvious to see the innovation.At the basis of understanding and analysis above, the research collected 2450 samples in total after getting rid of the incomplete samples from Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market in 2013. In the sample, 1712 companies didn’t have the financial restatement, 693 companies had the financial restatement while didn’t involve core profit, 218 companies had the financial restatement and involved core profit. Using the SVM intelligent method to build the model about the early warning of listing corporation’s financial restatement crisis, especially research that related to core profit of the early warning of listing corporation’s financial restatement crisis, was to find out an warning model that had most extended and best be-studied ability. Especially need to be spoken, the paper used DEA method to value the corporate governance efficiency, put it into the model about the early warning of financial restatement crisis, compared the model’s predicted accuracy between putting the efficiency index of corporate governance into model and not.In order to ensure the predicted model to be stable, the paper cut the whole samples into inner predicted samples and outer predicted samples, used the SVM intelligent method build the model about the early warning of listing corporation’s financial restatement crisis separately, and predicted the result about listing corporation’s financial restatement crisis and the crisis relating to core profit. In the whole samples, the paper would have an inner prediction about 2050 companies. 1500 didn’t have the financial restatement, 400 companies had the financial restatement while didn’t involve core profit, 150 companies had the financial restatement and involved core profit. It had an outer prediction about 355 companies. 212 didn’t have the financial restatement, 75 companies had the financial restatement while didn’t involve core profit, 68 companies had the financial restatement and involved core profit.The structure of this paper is as follows: the first chapter is introduction which focuses on introducing the background of the Financial Restatement Analysis and raising the subsequent problems, commenting on research overview at home and abroad, clarifying the purpose and contribution of those research, proposing the innovative points of doing this research. The main contents of the 2nd chapter are introducing the research methods for crisis warning in Listing Company’s Financial Restatement and overviewing the research models. The main contents for the 3rd chapter are introducing the samples choosing and data proposing of crisis warning models in Listing Company’s Financial Restatement and establishing the warning models. The 4th chapter is mainly focuses on analyzing the results of the crisis warning in Listing Company’s Financial Restatement and giving some relevant policy recommendations.Based on the conclusion, we give the following policy recommendations according to the actual situations:(1) investors can judge the actual value of the company and make rational investment decisions by using the Listing Company’s management efficiency index as subsidiary decision-making index, combining with Listing Company’s public disclosure information and financial restatement content and referring to the models that this paper established for the financial restatement’s crisis warning.(2) The Listing Company should complete the corporate governance structures and improve its corporate governance level, such as establish and standardize the independent audit committee, perfect inner control mechanism, strength the supervise of disclosing the company’s information and so on.(3) The relevant regulatory authorities should accelerate the regulations that are relevant to the restatement and legislate to crack down on the false disclosure of Listing Company’s regular reports with a heavy hand, improving the illegal cost of the Listing Company. In addition, there is a need to strength the supervision of the external audit institution, urge the audit institution to investigate the Listing Company’s Financial Report justly and strictly, improve the quality of the Listing Company’s information disclosure.From the research, we come to the following conclusions: the accuracy of prediction is relatively high, no matter the prediction is in or out of the sample. As a result, the model that is established for financial restatement’s crisis warning in this paper can predict the crisis of the domestic Listing Company’s financial restatement.(2) Comparing to the model for the financial restatement’s crisis warning that is not include the index of corporate governance efficiency, the correct rate of the predict results in the sample of the model that includes such index improves from 89.61% to 91.46%, and the correct rate of the predict result that is out of the sample improves from 74.08% to 78.03%. That is to say, corporate governance efficiency has important influence on the financial restatement’s crisis warning model.(2) When comparing to the companies that do not occur the financial restatement and do not involve the financial restatement for core profit, the corporate governance efficiency value is lower for the ones that are involve with the financial restatement for core profit, demonstrating that the corporate governance efficiency has important influence on financial restatement crisis, especially the financial restatement crisis that involve the core profit. |
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