The Study On Application Of Real Option Game On The Investment Of New Energy Vehicles With Self-owned Brand

On the trend of global auto industrial structure adjustment, the investmentin the new energy vehicles with self-owned brand will determine the survivaland development of sinitic automobile industry. So we need to find a suitabledecision-making analysis method to assess the vale of investment in newenergy vehicles with self-owned brand.The investment features of new energy vehicles with self-owned brand arethese including irreversibility of investment cost, uncertainty of future earning,competitiveness of investment market. The traditional NPV may underestimatethe value of new energy vehicles with self-owned brand, while the real optionsapproach is not taken the competitveness into account. So through thesecomparisons and analysises, this paper believes that the option gamesapproach has strong practical significance for the investment decision-makingprocess about new energy vehicles with self-owned brand. And this article willnot only be able to further expand the application of option game theory inpractice, but also be able to rich the existing theory that lack of investmentdecision-making research.in self-owned brand of new energy vehicles. At thesame time, the paper will use of option game model to estimate the value ofnew energy vehicles with self-owned brand which invest in the reverse quantitycompetition and returns price competition, to demonstrate the investment ofnew energy vehicles with self-owned brand project is feasible in differentinvestment competitive conditions. And we propose some of the policyrecommendationtons to improve self-owned brand of new energy vehicles’competitiveness at the present stage.First, the article discusses the improtance of investment about new energyvehicles with self-owned brand. Namely, it describes the development of new energy vehicles in global wide and the supportive attitudeof governments toward new energy vehicles.And all these show the newenergy vehicles investment is the trend. Then we analyse the necessity andfeasibility of new energy vehicles with self-owned brand invest in china, andshow china also has the ability to get discourse power in the transformation ofautomotive industry. After that the article will divide the investment of newenergy vehicles with self-owned brand into two stages. These are researchstage and industrialization stage. And the current situation shows that the carcompanies have basically completed the research stage and begin to enterinto the early stage of the industrialization. Therefore, this paper will be basedon the stage of industrialization which shows the feature of option game., whileregard the research stage as a fixed input investment. And calculate the valueof real options in industrialization stage with option game model. Finally, weuse the extended NPV method.So we get the value of investment in newenergy vehicles with self-owned brand. Thus the option games model will helpchina’s auto enterprises reduce decision-making risk and help them make rightinvestment decisions.Overall, the new energy automotive industry is an infant industry. In orderto ensure the sustainable and healthy development of the industry, not only themicro enterprises must make the correct decisions, but also the governmentneed to give strongly support to the industry. So at last, the article will give themacro-policy recommendations.