| As one of the typical forms of renewable energy, wind power development hasgained rapidly and been given priority in national energy strategy. The factors such asresource potential, technological progress, policy support will all affect thedevelopment path of wind power significantly. To reduce the cost of development, itis important to ascertain the scale and speed of wind power development under aspecific goal.This dissertation reviews and analyzes the main factors which affect China’swind power development path. On this basis, the research content include wind poweroverall development path and development trend of typical provinces. First of all, wedevelop a dynamic programming model combining the restraint of the learning curveand the technology diffusion model to study the optimal development path of China’swind power from2013to2030under the perspective of minimum cost; In the secondpart, we analyze the wind power installed capacity in selected provinces of Chinaduring2006-2012, and compare similarities and differences of these provinces inwind power development; then the Logistic models are developed according to thecharacteristics of each province, and these models are used for predicting thedevelopment trend of wind power in2013-2020, further analysis and the measures tobe taken by different provinces will be given.The results show that: carbon reduction targets significantly impact on windpower development path, and those help to achieve the goal of wind powerdevelopment; Wind power subsidies and support policies should be adjustedaccording to economic growth and the wind power development situation; windpower learning rate has a relatively small impact on development path, but greateffect on the development cost of wind power. Typical provinces should focus on thepower grid infrastructure and capacity, meanwhile to improve the ability of longdistance transmission, strengthen the development of offshore wind power and reducethe economic costs in the future development. |
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