The Analysis Of Factors Influencing The Chinese Consumer Sentiment Index

Consumer Sentiment is about the consumer perspective on the comprehensivejudgment and expectation of employment, income, prices, interest rates, according tothe national or regional economic development situation. The Consumer SentimentIndex is the measure of confident degree reflected on overall consumer and thechanges.In this research, some quantitative data, which may influence Chinese consumersentiment index, is obtained through the questionnaire, and Chinese consumersentiment index is calculated with some selected fixed indexes through a specificmethod. Then the Chinese consumer sentiment index statistics of some cities arereached. Using the software for statistical analysis, we model the relationship betweenthe consumer sentiment index and potentially influential variables, and find theinfluencing factors by analysis of variance. In addition, through in-depth data analysisand mining, we make a further study about the mechanism the variables effect on theconsumer sentiment.We employ the software SPSS for statistical analysis and in-depth data mining inthe study. Firstly, we use the analysis of variance model in the standard generalizedlinear model framework for data analysis. Secondly, through fitting the multivariateanalysis of variance model, we analyze all components of the sentiment index, as thedependent variable for modeling, analysis and variable selection. Thirdly, we useoptimal scaling regression to solve the problem of quantification for the categoricalvariables; we give an appropriate quantitative score for each category throughtransforming the categorical variables, with which the difference of each category isreflected. At last, we fit multilevel models aimed at the time, and give parameterestimates to explore the essential associations among the data.The research was focused to study the differences in consumer sentiment index forrespondents (families) which were different from demographic characteristics andbackground, and to discuss the factors’ influence manner and degree of consumersentiment index.At present, the index system formed by consumer sentiment index has irreplaceablevalue in forecasting the future macro-economic trend; it has become one of theimportant economic indicators of the market-economy countries. It not only affectsthe consumer behavior, but also makes an important guiding role for social capitalflows and resource allocation. The research has great market research value andtheoretical meaning.