Behavior Analysis And Numerical Simulation For Bass’ Market Diffusion Models

The Market diffusion mechanisms and laws of new product or technologies is an importantissue of market research. Bass model which both takes into account internal and external productinformation diffusion process is one of the famous diffusion models of consumer durablesmarket. In this paper we research the dynamic behavior of variable parameters Bass model byqualitative analysis of ordinary differential equations.In this paper we research the dynamic behavior of Bass model as the external diffusioncoefficient, internal diffusion coefficient and market capacity are segmented variable.we derivedthe growth curve behavior of the cumulative sales volume and instantaneous sales volume andthe characteristic time function of sales growth stage, maturity stage and decline stage. Wedemonstrate, under certain conditions, the monotonicity between the characteristic time and theexternal diffusion coefficient, internal diffusion coefficient and market capacity andsystematically studied the growth curve behavior of the cumulative sales volume andinstantaneous sales volume at the parameter update time and the characteristic time. Finally, weconduct numerical simulation by using Microsoft Office Excel2003and Origin8.0software.