Feasibility Of Guangdong Province To Expand Domestic Demand To Stimulate Economic Growth

Firstly, make a statistical description and the analysis of the GuangdongProvincial GDP, consumption, investment and net exports, and then selectrepresentative variables and treatment these variables data and set time series and themake tests, regression and analysis: summary. Based on VAR model, using data fromthe first quarter of2000to the fourth quarter2013, first established cointegrationequation, which can intuitively reflect the flexibility of GDP on consumption,investment and net exports,then use Granger causality test to test the mutualinfluence among GDP, consumption, investment and net exports these four variables,then use impulse response to analyze the profound influence degree of consumption,investment and net exports to GDP, and then use variance decomposition to analyzefour variables impact on each variable contribution proportion. Finally, drawconclusions and policy recommendations based on the results of empirical analysis inthis article.The results showed that: Overall, in Guangdong province,there is a long-termcointegration relationship among domestic demand as consumption and investment,external demand as net exports, and economic growth; while as domestic demand, thestimulating effect of consumption to GDP is greater than the stimulating effect of netexports of external demand to GDP, greater than the stimulating effect of investmentto GDP. Besides,there are mutual dynamic effects among GDP, consumption,investment and net exports, and the effects have different persistence. Based on thisevidence, the article makes some policy recommendations to the macroeconomicregulation and control of Guangdong Province’s expanding domestic demand tostimulate economic growth.