A Impact Study Of Macro-control On The Real Estate Credit Business Of Commercial Bank In China’s Commercial Bank

Reviewed this30years development of real estate market in our county，the rapiddevelopment in real estate market plays an important role in the devolopment of nationaleconomy, and is the significant industry to enhance the national economy and improve thelives of the people. However, though the real estate industry seems property, house pricescontinue keep rising, volumes of land and commodity house rise sharply now, there arestill many problems and dangers, hindering the sustainable and healthy development of theindusty, making it be the biggest challenges in China’s way to the harmonious society.Therefore, according to the market situation, uner the guidance of control target, the landpolicy, credit policy, tax policy, industrial policy, foreign trade policy and environmentalpolicy and so on all has carried on a corresponding adjustment. Commercial bank is aimportant carrier of national macro-control, and plays a large role in it, it’s also a bearer ofthe macro adjustment function. As a series of macro-control policies introduced insuccession, the real estate credit business of commercial banks has been greatly impaired.In this paper, firstly， I clarified the macroeconomic regulation and commercial bankcredit business relationships， analysed the influence process and results of themacro-control policies on the real estate credit business of commercial banks from themechanism,and illustrated the effects of expansion and contraction of these two differentmacro-control the direction of the real estate credit to commercial banks. Secondly,Ianalysed the reality of macro-control of China’s commercial banks in the real estatecredit,followed by its existing problems from both the perspective of commercial banksand government.Thirdly,following on brief introduction of Markov regime switchingmodel is the empirical part of the article.In order to examine the impact of macro-controlpolicies on the real estate credit business of commercial banks,I selected monthly datafrom October2004to December2013, built a two district system with Markov regimeswitching vector autoregression (ms-var) model, contained five variables which are m2,rate,tax, land_square, price and loan. In the end, I gave policy recommendations fromthree angles, that is government, commercial banks and real estate finance market system.The main innovation of this paper is Markov regime switching model introduced tothe study of China’s macro-control effects of commercial bank credit to the real estatebusiness.Using empirical results obtained by measurement software, the expansion andcontraction phase of economic phenomena are divided into two regimes.