| With the development of China’s securities markets, there are more and more of the listed companies and people in this market. However, in the face of increasingly complexity, individual investor not only has no time to study these companies but also is difficult to conduct a comprehensive analysis of securities investment. As a result, as security market intermediaries, securities analysts are inking listed companies with investors, they analyze the potential economic and investment value through detailed investigation for listed companies, and provide investment advice to investors by research reports. But in recent years, some analyst research reports "own" events continue to be exposed, the reference value of analyst research reports face unprecedented challenge, we want to know whether the investment advice provided by analyst research reports have the reference value? Whether investor can get excess returns if thy follow the analyst’s recommendation? This issue has been debated in academic circles at home and abroad for decades. We believe that as a professional analyst, whose existence has value in itself, and although some analysts fraud, wrong to conclusions and mislead investors, but inevitably there are some "gold" analysts, in the industry. So what kind of analyst research report provides a higher reference value? This paper attempts to answer this question.This paper is divided into seven chapters, each chapter as follows:The first chapter, IntroductionThis chapter introduces the background and significance of research topics and briefly introduces the ideas and framework of this article. First, we demonstrate the existence value of analyst from the efficient market hypothesis. But in recent years, with the research report "own" events continue to be reported, analyst research reports are constantly pushed to the cusp of public opinion. Thus we ask this question:whether investors get the excess yield if analyst provides investment advice to them? For this problem scholars have done a lot of research, but did not get the same conclusion.The second chapter, literature reviewFirst relevant literature on the value of the investment securities analysts recommend stocks were reviewed. Foreign scholars have done a lot of empirical research, but the conclusions are not consistent. Because of China’s stock market and foreign mature capital market has a large gap, foreign research results may not have reference value, therefore it is necessary to understand our domestic research related. The earliest such studies are conducted Lin Xiang, he thinks Securities analyst investment advice does not have investment value. However Zhu Xian and Wang Yi research opinions are differ. In order to understand the factors that affect the ability of securities analysts’forecasts, we summarize the relevant literature found that the scale of brokerage, analyst experience, self-confidence, reputation degrees, analyst independence, economic uncertainty, listed the degree of information disclosure will affect their ability to predict.The third chapter, the development of Chinese securities industryThe development of Chinese securities industry is divided into three sections for a brief introduction. The first section describes the development process of China’s securities analysts, its history can be traced back to the Chinese stock market was first established, according to our regulators achieve regulatory standard it can be divided into four stages:infancy, spontaneous stage, development stage and high-speed specification stage of development. The second section we introduce the problems of securities industry in the process of development and analysis this problem. The third section describes the development trend of the industry, with the rapid development of China’s economy, the securities industry must be able to grow up quickly, a lot of talented people will join the industry.Chapter IV, the theoretical of analysts recommended stocks. Introduces the three theories related with analysts:behavioral finance, the efficient market hypothesis, asymmetric economic informatics.The fifth chapter, the influence factors of securities analysts’ forecasts ability. External factors include:analyst independence, analyst reputation, broker research capabilities, analysts face a variety of uncertainties; internal factors include:the analyst’s own qualities, working years. The large number of empirical studies have found that the more independent analysts, the higher the reputation, the stronger the brokerage research strength, its stronger predictive ability. But internal factors studied literature is rarely, especially working years has not been studied, so the next part of this article we attempts to empirically test this issue.The sixth chapter, An Empirical StudyWe use Excel software to analyst research report, and use SAS software to statistical analysis, empirical test use event study.The results showed that:Overall, analysts have strong predictive ability. After publishing analyst ratings, the direction of stock prices are broadly consistent with analyst ratings. The longer working years can lead to higher abnormal returns to investors. Therefore, we believe that the longer the analysts working years, their predictive power is stronger. Analyst with long experienced have a profound and correct understanding, and have accumulated a large amount of network resources.so his stock picking ability should be enhanced accordingly. If investors want to get a higher excess returns, then they should listen to more investment recommendations of analysts whose working years are longerChapter VI Conclusions and OutlookThe innovation of this article:the ability to factor in the impact of analysts’ forecasts, prior scholars studied the external factors, including:analyst independence, analyst reputation, broker research capabilities, a variety of uncertainties; But research literature about internal factors are rarely, especially working years.this issue has not been studied by predecessors, so the paper is an important complement to the previous study. |
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