| Dividend policy is an important problem of listing corporation. In this process, the shareholder as investors tend to think more of return rate on investment, especially small shareholders; while the management and controlling shareholder consider more about the company’s operating situation and long-term development.This contradiction makes the dividend distribution policy must consider the overall development situation of the company, and the dividend policy has become an important index to judge the enterprise’s operation ability,development ability as well as the value of the company."Signal theory "is interpreted from multi angles, it considers the dividend distribution policy can show the status of the company through the transmission of information.上市公司The dividend policy is divided into cash dividend, stock dividend, property dividend liability dividend and so on."High stock dividend" is a kind of dividend policy.It is considered as one of the direction of investment in recent years, it expresses the good performance as high-quality stocks or potential ones. However, with this concept is known, enterprises use the idea for speculative activities, and this phenomenon has aroused people’s concern, this paper want to judge "high stock dividend" situations through research, how it affect the stock price, and whether this influence is in accordance with the reasonable standard, which meet the future value of the company.This paper is divided into six parts:The first part is the introduction, firstly it elaborates the background and significance of research projects; secondly, analyze the general basis of this research, including the research ideas and research methods of generalization, it can be the research support; finally, tell the innovation and shortcomings. The second part is the literature reviews which are divided into foreign and domestic ones. The third part is about relevant theory about the listing corporation.This part can help us to understand the root in the analysis process. The fourth part is the design of empirical research, mainly about the corresponding data selection, model selection, scientific and reasonable assurance demonstration. The fifth part is the empirical analysis of the results.The sixth part is the conclusion and the suggestions.On the choice of the research methods, there are the event analysis and linear regression method.In the first part, dividend pre-announcement and dividends actual announcement are the event windows, and the length of time is the days before and after the announcement for5days. In the second part, based on the results of "high stock dividend" events with stock price, this paper will further check the relation between the presence or absence of the changes and the future value, namely whether the "high stock dividend" has predictive value, combined with various financial indexes which establish linear regression model analysis. In the establishment of the linear regression model, we check the correlation between variables.Therefore, financial indexes in one kind need to determine the correlation coefficient by Pearson test. In determining the correlations between variables, quantify the indexes by linear regression analysis.According to the empirical analysis of event study, the excess return before and after the pre-announcement date within11days is not significant, indicating that there was no relation between the fluctuation of stock price and dividend announcement. The excess return before and after the actual announcement day is significantly apparent within a certain period of time. This shows that the fluctuation of stock price and dividend announcement have great relations. Combined with the cumulative excess average yield statistics, the overall effect of "high stock dividend" about actual announcement is negative, that is to say the incident only cause the price rise in a very short period of time, and only have a positive return tendency before the event actually occurs.According to the linear regression method,CAR is the independent variable, four kinds of index are dependent variables. Among the ten indicators, nine indicators show that they does not exist the correlation with CAR, which are current ratio, quick ratio, cash recovery rate, accounts receivable turnover, inventory turnover ratio, sales net profit rate, return on assets, return on equity, net profit growth rate; only the main business growth and CAR are related, namely can base on CAR to determine the growth rate of main business income. InIiln this paper,"high stock dividend" events really affect the move of return in the stock market.However, it is limited to the days before they occur.This shows that the "high stock dividend" has short-term effects,which is a way of investors to invest, and the time for investment is of great significance, investors should be cautious. In addition, excess earnings in "high stock dividend" do not reflect the future value of the company, which further proves the "high stock dividend" in the securities market is a short-term way for investors to obtain excess returns.Finally, to improve the quality of market, we should train investors’ risk awareness,set up standardized system, improve the corporate management structure, ensure sustained and stable dividend policy in listing corporation, update the market policy, strengthen the effective supervision and so on.Combined with the research of scholars at domestic and abroad, the innovation and shortcomings are as follows:The main innovation is in the investment situation, the writer get through the analysis of the latest data, guarantee the timeliness, and launch the analysis from two aspects:the short-term effect and long-term effect, makes the theory more comprehensive.The main problems are:data collection focused on2012, because2013financial data failed to obtain, which decrease the timeliness of this paper; for the analysis of the problem, because the structure and pattern of each company is different, the writer can only analyze the overall features of the data, besides that,as the lack of professional knowledge,the analysis in the process has aspects to improve. |
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