The Analysis Of Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Stock Prices And Stock Prices Forecasting

The stock market has always been regarded as a country’s macroeconomic " microcosm ", is not only the object of national public concern, but an important content of other countries to evaluate a country’s economic strength,its importance is self-evident. With the market expanding, defects in Chinese stock market are also emerging, such as market standardization degree is not high, malignant events have often occurred; the related system is not perfect, the "inconstant in policy" phenomenon is serious, leading to significant changes in stock prices and investors had been delisting, seriously affect the healthy and stable development of the stock market.Therefore, it is necessary to study the factors affecting stock prices, and on this basis, seek appropriate ways to predict future stock prices as accurately as possible.First of all,on the basis of the theoretical analysis of the macroeconomic factors affecting stock prices, using the monthly data of related indicators from January2004to December2013, grey correlation analysis, cointegration analysis and granger causality test are used in the empirical research on the relationship between the macro economy and stock market. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between macro economy and stock market,although there is a certain degree of diviation between them, the stock market is still a " barometer" of macro-economy.Secondly,select the BP neural network model and GM (1,1) model to forecast the Shanghai composite index monthly data from October2013to December2013, and found that neural network model, including the changes of macroeconomic information, has predicted results that are more in line with reality. Thus,this article believes that the macroeconomic is still an important factor affecting stock prices,although they phased deviating.When forecast the future stock prices,we should consider the influence of macroeconomic factors on stock prices. Finally, on the basis of summarizing the full text, put forward the feasible policy suggestions, from the aspects of expanding the market scale, accelerating reform of the interest rate, transforming government functions, etc., to improve the state of Chinese stock market, and promote the smooth and healthy development of the market.