The Study Of The Potential Impact Of Tpp On Economic And Trade Relations Between China And Asean

This article is on the basis of regional economic integration theory, and the main line focuses on the potential impact between TPP and the economic and trade relations of China and ASEAN. It points out that TPP appears on the condition of the deepening of the economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region. On the other hand, the stagnation of trade liberalization of APEC becomes the impetus of TPP’s development in America. At the same time, this article analyzes the new changes of trade and investment between China and ASEAN. These changes appear before the foundation of TPP, and they are the results of the establishment of China-ASEAN free trade area. China and ASEAN are becoming more and more closely on the economic and trade relations. The concentrated expressions include the trade scale’s dramatic increase and balance deepening of trade dependence, and the increase of product structure and two-way investment, etc. Meanwhile, the cooperation also exist some problems, such as similar trade structure and the smaller scale of investment. In addition, some external factors, like the U.S. intervention, political trust between China and ASEAN countries, are also difficult to successfully carrying out insufficient economic and trade relations.But the appearance of TPP is accompanied by the potential threats. Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam have attended the negotiation, otherwise, The Philippines and Thailand also received the invitation. But China still be excluded. So, once the negotiation comes to an agreement, it will bring large impact to the "structure of trade and investment between China and ASEAN. On the one hand, the changes include the trade diversion effect and investment transfer effect, reducing trade scale, and investment direction of cross-border. On the other hand, due to the highly alternative of APEC and more binding action rules, the TPP is likely to make APEC a mere figurehead and impede the process of economic liberalization between China and Asian countries. Meanwhile, it may weaken the political mutual trust between China and ASEAN countries in result of the intervention of America.On this basis, China must stand in a more rational position, adhere to the principle of gradual, create an " upgrade " of China-ASEAN free trade area with its own strong strength, actively build the new Maritime Silk Road, and speed up the pace of domestic industrial structure adjustment, transform the mode of economic development to explore joining TPP. At the same time, China should strengthen the bilateral and multilateral FTA construction with neighboring countries and other nations, and steadily push forward regional economic cooperation,etc.