Study On Repurchase Pricing Of The Road BT Project Based On Risk Analysis

The investment of our country’s road infrastructure projects continued to grow, butlimited government funding has restricted the construction of infrastructure. In recentyears, BT model which is widely used to attract social capital to participate in theconstruction of highway projects and ease the government’s financial pressure, as wellto improve the level of road network and service functions has played an important role.To determine the repurchase price is one of the core content about BT mode projects’investment and financing. Because of its large amount of investment, engineeringtechnical complexity, the complex relationship, long construction period and so on,the repurchase price of BT model has risk. This paper’ study on repurchase pricing ofthe road BT project from the view of the repurchase price influenced by variousuncertain risk factors,which can perfect the methods and its theory of repurchasepricing and promote the sustainable development of the road construction investmentand financing has practical and theoretical value.This paper is from the investor’s point of view of the BT road projects’ repurchasepricing to study the existing repurchase pricing related problems and shortcomings,proposes the necessity of the repurchase pricing model ‘s establishment based on riskanalysis.First study the road BT mode,uncertain risk characteristics about repurchasepricing, the composition and effects of road BT mode repurchase price.Then study theBT risk factors which affect the road projects’ repurchase price and the affectedrelationship, and establish the risk factors and risk influenced diagram.On this basis, thispaper establishes a hierarchical fuzzy risk identification model.Then according to thecharacteristics of the road BT mode’s repurchase price, this paper establishes riskdecision model of the road BT repurchase pricing which features risk variables andanalysis risk variables’method and compares with the current pricing model.This paper,from the perspective of the repurchase cost, uses the Monte Carlo simulation method toobtain the fluctuation range of repurchase costs and probability distribution curve,investors can make risk decision of repurchase price combined with the curve, theoutcome can provide a reasonable scientific basis for both the government and the roadBT investor negotiated repurchase price,Finally, the establishment of VAR model for BT investors can determine therisk-return on investment of BT road projects. It can provide the efficiency evaluation of BT project’s investment and make decision with investors..This paper establishs the model of repurchase pricing based on risk analysis,whichis a new exploration on the methods of repurchase pricing.This model perfects andenriches the theory of the road BT project’s repurchase pricing.At the same time it canprovide investors with reasonable risk decision to participate in the BT project andsafeguard their own interests.