Influece Of Commercial Banks Interest Rate Factor Analusis Through Process Of Interest Rate Liberalization

The international financial environment getting complex and the structural adjustment of our country’s economy entering a critical period, China’s reform of interest rate liberalization is corresponding to get to a critical time. Reform experience of interest rate liberalization from abroad is evident to tell us that domestic economy growing to promoting steadily and financial resources allocating optimally and balance of payments achieving to equilibrium after the completion of the interest rate liberalization of interest rate. In foreign research, qualitative and quantitative analyses of interest rate of paper emerge more and more. But similar articles have been finding rarely in domestic. Most scholars focus interest rate on impacting analysis of changes corresponding to other variables. There are little scholars to research that change of other economical indicators impact quantitatively to interest rate.In the first, writer summarizes economics theory of interest rate.And then analysis that the progress of reform of interest rate liberalization in China during1996-2013.The writer divides progress of reform of interest rate liberalization into three stages, and analysis respectively change of interest rate by the basic status and its influencing factors. The writer tries to establish respectively a long-term stable relationship by co-integration test in three stages and find out degree of influence by the VAR model and variance decomposition. During the period of samples, the indicators monthly data are non-stationary series. The writer has to deal with the data by unit root test and differential treatment. The writer result that investment, the inflation rate, money supplying, import and export of balance, fiscal balance and exchange rate are all affect the interest rate through granger causality test. The conclusion is that main factor that affects interest rate volatility is the rate of inflation by the variance decomposition and impulse response analysis in the first phase, the net of importing and exporting in second phase, the rate of inflation in the final phase. Finally corresponding to fluctuation of interest rate, the commercial bank shall establish its own prediction and management mechanism of interest rate to strengthen the bank assets and liabilities management develop vigorously intermediary business of commercial bank. Only improve commercial banks themselves, in order to deal better with fluctuation of interest rate that interest rate of liberalization brings to.