An Empirical Study On The Credit Risk Of Companies Based On The KMV Model

With the development of the market and the expansion of the financial sector,"credit risk" has seriously restricted the survival and development of an enterprise,as the special nature of the infectious and controllability.Especially in recent years,with the rapid development of new financial instruments, the demand of the availability and predictability of the credit risk are more and more high.In order to meet the needs of the market, we should analyze credit risk more accurately and predict more precisely.Nowadays, more and more people realize that, using the tools of mathematics and mathematical modeling to quantify credit risk analysis has a good prospect and practical value, which is currently the mainstream trend of market development, it has brought a revolution change risk to control direction, impels us to discover the credit risks more sensitively.In the current several mainstream model, KMV model aroused more and more concern because of its advantage of high prediction.It would reveal the real status of a company to avoid risks in forecast.This paper applies the KMV model of foreign institutions defined, but the purpose tend to study credit risks of domestic companies,those seems to have different performances as the specific characteristics of domestic financial market.In this paper,I used various listing Corporation’s stock price, financial statements and other information,get the company credit risk and default rate.through the comparison of the data,I have the following three basic conclusions:1.Through empirical research on the KMV model, it is proved that the KMV model is appropriate and useful in the market of our country.2、Through the comparison of the data of companies,we can find that there are positive correlation between company asset size and the default rate.3.Thro ugh the comparison of the data of different kind of companies, we can find that there are correlation between ndustry and the default rate.According to above conclusions, we have suggestions as follow:1,I suggest companies pay more attention to credit risk quantification,to avoid risks in forecast.2,I suggest companies take more diversification investment to avoid risks.3,I suggest the government support small and medium-sized enterprises more.