An Empirical Study Of The Price Corrrelation Between The Primary Copper Market And The Recycled Copper Market

Abstract:Copper is the most important raw materials in the modern industrial, China is the world’s larges country of using copper, however, the domestic copper resources are scarce,so recycled copper has become an important part of copper production and consumption in China. Currently recycled copper production accounts for40%of total copper production, and this proportion is increasing every year. With the increasing market position of recycled copper, recycled copper market price volatility make more and more attention, what is the relation between the price of primary and scrap metal markets gets increasing attention.Firstly, this article analyzes the price linkage relationship between the copper market and the regeneration of the original copper market, then take an empirical test about conduction relationships of price yield and the linkage relationship price volatility between the original copper market and recycled copper market. About the Empirical test of conduction relationships of price yield, I select cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and multiple regression models and other methods, which prove that it exists unidirectional transmission from the original copper market price to recycled copper market price and specific determination of the original copper market price changes on the market price of recycled copper. Fluctuations in the price linkage between the empirical analysis, I mainly use DCC-MGARCH model and EGARCH model to model, and find that the dynamic correlation coefficient of price volatility between the copper market and the recycled copper market is large, and show that the relationship of price volatility between copper market is more closely. In addition, through EGARCH model parameter estimation proved most recycled copper market price fluctuations exist leverage, namely, recycled copper market price fluctuations on the degree of sensitivity to bad news is large, vulnerable to "bad news" effect; then,Establish BEKK-MGARCH fluctuations in market prices of the two models tested, found and recycled raw copper market exists between the copper market volatility spillover effects in both directions. Finally, I put forward some policy recommendations for timely circumventing recycled copper market price risk and reducing unnecessary economic losses based on the empirical results.In this study, there are31figures,16tables,90references totally.