The Research On Evaluation And Prediction Of Coordinate Development Of Economy And Environment Of Resource-based Cities

Abstract:Nowadays, while the human Facing conflicts and crises of economic and environment, ecologically sustainable development has become a hot issue of global concern and an important issue to be solved. Our country is developing country, after decades of reform and opening up, the country’s economic strength has been greatly enhanced, but we should see that in the economic development. The ecological environment has also suffered serious damage, especially in some resource-based cities where the economic is heavily dependent on the existence of resources, at the expense of excessive consumption of resources, destruction of the environment to rapid economic development, which is opposite of the people who is willing to living in harmony with the coordinated development of economy and environment requirements. Thus, the rational coordination of economic development and the environment is very necessary, which is the starting point of this study.In view of this, at first,this paper has a study on a preliminary analysis of influencing factors on economic and environmental systems coordinated, and establish appropriate evaluation system. Then gives the corresponding comprehensive evaluation of economic development and environment-friendly, and further build the coordination and the coordinated development degree coefficient calculation method for the analysis and evaluation. Finally, give the combination of gray system and the BP neural network approach to forecast the coordinated development of economy and environment degree. What is more, in Huainan City,2005to2011specific data, for example, calculate the the coordinated development degree, and use the forecasting model predictions to prove evaluation model and prediction model feasible.We can see that:in period of2005to2011period, the degree of economic development and environment protection have been steadily improved, and the development of environmental protection is greater than the development of economic development, although this is mainly reflected in the comprehensive economic assessment and evaluation of environment-friendly values tended to increase, but the environment-friendly comprehensive evaluation value rising curve steeper. By predicted, in2012to2014, coordinated degree of economic environment continued to decline and gradually move into a U of movements; forecast for the coordinated development degree upward into clear exponential trend, shows the development of the economic environment in the short term still towards getting better.