Study On The Forecasting And Early Warning System Of Debt Financing Platform Of Beijing City Xicheng District

In2008, investment and financing platform of local government rapidly increased, then the local debt has increased rapidly, for the local government investment and financing platform should be analyzed to see, in response to the financial crisis, the platform for infrastructure construction, industrial upgrading, expanding domestic demand has played a positive role, but due to the lack of legal supervision laws and regulations related to the financing platform, there are also the operating risk, and financial risk, social risk hidden. In this paper, through the study of the existence of the local government financing platform of problems and risks, combined with the actual situation in Beijing city investment and financing platform, and strive to explore ways for causes and risk transmission risk, focusing on the Beijing Xicheng District local government investment and debt financing platform, the establishment of early warning system to the debt risk, and puts forward some effective strategies for risk assessment and prevention.Firstly, this paper introduces the background, the content, the reference to domestic and foreign investment and financing of local government based on the comprehensive analysis of relevant works, introduced the research methods, and research topics.elaborate the relevant research results at home and abroad and theoretical basis.Second, detailed analysis of the local government investment and financing platform risk factors of formation, analysis of the reasons for the formation of the system of laws and the root, asymmetry of central and local tax that made of financial authority and powers, the local tax is insufficient, inadequate financial resources is the fundamental problem, and the local government as a local debt guarantee., is not the main grid, local financing platform of internal governance mechanism is not perfect and so on are the causes of risk. Local government debt risk to fiscal risk, financial risk, social risk conduction threat.In third, according to Beijing Xicheng District investment and financing platform, the paper analyzed the existing investment and financing platform in Xicheng District problems and risks, based on debt forecast model, and predicts the Xicheng District financing platform debt burst timing and strength.Fourth, the debt based on the prediction, the index system construction debt early warning mechanism, evaluation of the Xicheng District investment and financing platform risk level, and put forward the corresponding risk prevention mechanism, to promote the investment and financing platform to enter the market, standardized operation. According to the modern enterprise system to clarify the relationship between the local government and enterprises.