A Study Of Monetary Policy’s Asymmetric Effects Under The Effect Of The Shadow Banking

Presently, the research on asymmetry of monetary policy, mainly concentrated in two aspects, on the one hand is the asymmetry of monetary policy on the economic cycle, on the other hand is the asymmetry of monetary policy direction.This paper choices the MS-VAR model to analyse the asymmetric effects of monetary policy in the economic cycle. It devices the economic cycle into high-developing economy period and low-developing economy period, and the effects of monetary policy will be different in the different economy time.With the development of the shadow banking of china, and the increasingly complex environment of financial markets, the effects of monetary policy will be more difficult to achieve. So under the action of shadow banking, the asymmetry effects of monetary policy has become the important research subject. This paper analyzes the effect of monetary policy in theoretical firstly, combined with the data from1998to2013of different economic cycle in our country. Secondly, we select quarterly data from2003to2013to study the asymmetric effects of monetary policy under the effect of shadow banking in the MS-VAR model. We chice M2and SB(the scale of the shadow banking) as independent variable, chice GDP and CPI as the dependent variable. The empirical results show that the asymmetric effects of monetary policy being expanding under the effect of the shadow banking in our country. Specifically, in the high-developing economy period, the effect of the monetary policy is weakened, which the weakened effect of the price is more higher than the output obviously; in the low-developing economy period, the effect of the monetary policy is strengthened, which the strengthening effect of the price is more higher than the output. Therefore, with the effect of the shadow banking, the asymmetric effects of monetary policy in different economic cycle is expanding.