Building Multiple Linear Regression Model On Contractors Predicting The Behavior Of Owners In Default Of Payment

It is a problem for Chinese constructions that owners often default payment these years. It has seriously been affecting the normal order of the construction market, and hindering the healthy development of the contractors, and destroying the economy stability and social harmony. In a word, looking for the main influence factors of the owners’behavior in default of payment, the contractors can quickly predict the owners pay breach in the bidding decision. That has the important practical significance.This paper analyzes the behavior of owners in default of payment under their strength meeting the bidding requirements from the angle of contractors. This paper starts a subject about the owners’behavior in default of payment. It discusses the three research questions as follows: the affecting factors of default behavior and classification system, the main microcosmic factors, building predicting model about owners’behavior in default of payment. First of all, through the literature review, the paper summarizes the affecting factors of default behavior comprehensively and classifies them by the dichotomy method. The result is macroscopic factors is3and microcosmic factors is11. Then, based on the influencing factors on the classification, the5main microcosmic influence factors is determined through expert scoring method as follows:owner financing ability and its financial strength, the owner’s reputation, both the degree of trust, the signing of the contract, the contractor’s performance. Finally, the5main microcosmic influence factors as independent variables of multiple linear regression model to establish the theoretical framework and research hypothesis. Based on it, the author designs the questionnaire and analyzes reliability and validity of the questionnaire and the data by statistical software SPSS17.0to estimate a lot of models using stepwise regression method. According to the degree of the model fitting the data and the difference of the regression equation and regression coefficient, the author selects the optimal model, checks the basic assumption, and diagnoses the outliers. So the Contractors could predict the behavior of owners in default of payment using the model. The conclusion of the study shows, the regression coefficient of owner financing capacity and its financial strength is-0.471, the regression coefficient of the contractor’s performance is-0.262, the regression coefficient of the owner’s reputation is-0.257, the regression coefficient of both sides of the trust degree is-0.206, the regression coefficient of the signing of contract is-0.120, and the constant is7.398. The multiple linear regression method predicting the behavior of owners in default of payment is innovative regression method, and it could help the contractors to make rational decisions in the bidding.