Prediction Of China’s Wood-based Panels Industry Timber Demand

Wood-based panels, which is in great demand in many areas like furniture manufacturing, construction industry, architectural decoration and traffic transportation, is one of the major industrial products of wood processing. While with the development of economy and the increase of population, the scale of the wood-based panels consuming industries is more and more big, so the wood-based panels industry become an important consumption of timber. Due to the growing shortage of forest resources in today’s China, coupled with the construction industry has a pivotal role in China’s economic growth, study the demand for wood-based panels industry not only for the rational allocation of forest resources play an important role in the future development of China’s economy also has some reference value. At the same time, the study can offer valuable references for forestry and economic policy makers to make relevant policies and decisions.There are many species of wood-based panels, but the three kinds of main products are plywood, particle board and fiberboard. Besides, there are also a lot of other products like block board and so on. In all wood-based panels products, plywood and block board have lager output and consume logs, while other boards like particle board and fiber board are mainly use wood residue or other agricultural crops like straw and sugarcane as raw material, so the plywood and block board are chosen as research objects in the paper. Based on the former research of timber’s supply and demand in China, it analyzes and studies the development and vicissitude of China’s the production, import and export trade for plywood and block board from2003to2012, obtained the main factors which influence the supply and demand of plywood and block board in China. Finally based on the theory of economic forecasting, economic elasticity theory, the balance between supply and demand theory, system dynamics theory and the quadratic exponential smoothing prediction method, the study builds the Chinese plywood market supply and demand system dynamics model and block board the quadratic exponential smoothing forecasting model, and divided the national economic growth rate into high speed, medium speed and low speed three programs to forecast the next five years2013-2017the supply of plywood and block board. By using the wood processing utilization of plywood and block board, it can convert to demand quantity of timber which can work out the demand for timber in wood-based panels industry in China in the next five years and discuss the predicted results.Model predict result shows that at high, medium, and low economic growth rate, in2017demand quantity for timber in wood based panels industry in China was520million m3,500million m3,470million m3, which was relatively scarce forest resources of China is undoubtedly a huge challenge. The result also shows that under the different national economic growth, the next five years, the demand for timber of our country wood based panels industry overall upward trend, but in different national economic growth, the demand for timber is slightly different.