Research Of RMB Bloc In East Asia Based On The Perspectives Of Exchange Rate Linkage

In2007the United States real estate sub-loan crisis triggered by the financial turmoilsweeping the globe. The dollar has suffered a crisis of confidence hitherto unknownsince the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. From Europe to Latin America, andAsia, the world becomes a "de-dollarization" whirlwind, countries have takenmeasures to reduce international economic trade and investment field dependence onthe dollar. The global financial crisis has fully reflected the contradiction and problemof dollar standard implicit, and there are signs that the dollar standard is graduallydecline. After the crisis, a new world order is emerging, and its focus gradually tiltedtowards China, while the internationalization of the RMB is one of the key strength.In recent years, accelerating the process of regionalization of RMB, the RMB hasbecome increasingly prominent position in East Asia, East Asia or has formed RMBbloc.Firstly, this paper from the dollar hegemony, currency substitution, original sin andthe fear of floating on the four aspects of the theoretical analysis of the East AsianDollar Standard. Second, the East Asian Dollar Standard depth analysis of the reasonfor the decline, and the reasons for the rise of East Asia RMB bloc. And then, examineempirical analysis of RMB bloc in East Asia.The empirical results show that: first, the status of RMB in East Asia has beensignificantly improved,"RMB bloc" is steadily rising. From the linkage analysisresults, the Korean won, the ringgit peso, Philippines, Singapore dollar, Thai baht andthe dollar and the RMB exchange rate are highly correlated, and has a high correlationbetween them. Volatility spillovers from the analysis results, after the secondexchange reform, two-way volatility spillover effects between RMB and the SouthKorean won, the Philippine peso, Taiwan dollar and the Vietnamese Dong. And RMBhas unidirectional volatility spillover effect for the HK dollar and Singapore dollar.From the East Asian currency basket weight analysis results, after the secondexchange reform, after excluding the impact of the RMB exchange rate against U.S.dollars, RMB significantly affects the Hong Kong dollar, rupiah, won, ringgit,Singapore dollar and Taiwan dollar. Without considering the effect of the dollar’ssituation, the RMB exchange rate is significant to the9East Asian monetary effect. Second, the East is still a strong dollar zone. From the East Asian currency basketweights dollar, the dollar has an absolute dominance, while in2008the globalfinancial crisis in East Asia against the U.S. dollar weakening the position is limited.Third, Status of RMB in East Asia has been significantly improved, and East Asia hasalready formed the dollar, euro and RMB "a situation of tripartite confrontation"potential. The RMB to US dollar exchange rate is an important reference of EastAsian monetary exchange rate. It can be expected, the RMB will play a moreimportant role in East Asia, and even play the Asian pillar role of currency.Finally, combining the results of previous studies and the current internationaleconomic situation, the RMB regionalization, internationalization, and participation inregional monetary and financial cooperation, the article proposes some appropriatepolicy recommendations.