The Optimal Scale Test On The Infrastructure Investment And Forecast On The Scale

Infrastructure as a government public expenditure can promote economic growthdirectly，At the same time it has other special properties which both“spillover effect”and“network effects”，it is an essential part of a country’s economic development. Investment ininfrastructure have a significant and far-reaching influence on the national economydevelopment，industry and region social economy. The consequences of investment to form achain reaction and investment multiplier effect. However，the investment scale is not thebigger the better，Too Big scale of infrastructure investment can produce“crowding outeffect”to private capital，So there is a scale of pareto optimality. The scale of infrastructureinvestment should be coordinated with the supply of private goods and the growth of overalleconomic，etc. In view of this，How to measure whether the actual infrastructure investmentachieve to the optimal size？According to the gap and the shortage of infrastructureinvestment，How to make reasonable investment arrangements?The Demand for infrastructuretypes is the same in different regions？And how to forecast the scale of infrastructureinvestment scientifically， comprehensive and reliable？ It has important theoreticalsignificance and practical significance for the infrastructure capital planning and the financingmanagement of infrastructure project investment，determine the government subsidies.This paper put the scale of infrastructure investment and its related influencing factors asthe research object. Firstly using DEMATEL factor analysis model to identify the key factorswhich influencing the scale of infrastructure investment， Next the optimal model ofgovernment public expenditure is introduced into the production function， Get theinfrastructure investment theory model of marginal output and optimal size. And then use theChinese provincial panel data from1996to2012for empirical research，To explore the outputeffect of infrastructure investment and the optimal investment scale. And the actualinvestment scale in our country compared with the optimal size，to measure whether the actualinvestment of the infrastructure has achieved the optimal scale？To maximize investmentreturns，the order proposal to infrastructure investment. Based on this，the improvedGA-PSO-V-SVR model is applied to predict the scale of infrastructure investment. At thesame time to obtain the effective input variables，this paper adopt the above results which from the DEMATEL factor analysis model，To eliminate the redundant variables which is theinfluence factors of the scale of infrastructure investment，So as to achieve the purpose ofdimension reduction denoising. Finally use the infrastructure investment data which from1990to2012to case study about the whole national and eastern，central and western areas.Predict the investment scale of infrastructure in2013，2015and2020， provide thedecision-making reference for the government in infrastructure Investment.