Research On Market Risk And Control Of Pledge Financing For Agricultural Products

The financing difficulty of small and medium-sized enterprises in our country,especially the agricultural small and medium-sized enterprises is very outstanding,pledge financing of agricultural products as a kind of financial innovation, can make fulluse of the massive agricultural products inventory of small and medium-sizedagricultural enterprises, and solve their demand for the capital in production andoperation, And the bank can find a progressive way through the development of smalland medium-sized enterprise customers in the increasingly fierce market competition,logistics enterprises can get service income through the provision of logistics activities,this is a win-win model of financing.In the process of agricultural pledge financing, risk control is focused on marketrisk, agricultural products’ market price risk is the main risk of the market risk.This article analyses the risk of market price of agricultural product, from twoaspects of the qualitative and the quantitative. Factors that influence the fluctuations ofthe price of agricultural products in China have supply and demand relations,international market, financial currency, natural climate, agricultural production,circulation system, monopoly, etc., these factors intertwined; jointly affect the price ofagricultural products. Using VaR method can be directly calculated the market riskvalue of the agricultural products, and get a quantitative risk value. Three differentkinds of calculation methods are the delta method, historical simulation method, MonteCarlo simulation method; these methods should be combined with the different situationto calculate the VaR values. After the analysis of the market risk, this paper putsforward four measures to control the market risk, choosing suitable agriculturalproducts as the pledged property, this also is the first ring of the risk control of themarket price; varieties of agricultural products with futures can build agricultural shortpositions in the futures market for hedging; to the agricultural products in nocorresponding futures, we can use the loan-to-value ratio to control the market risk.Considering the hedging and loan-to-value ratio control cannot eliminate market risk,When In sharp fluctuations in prices for agricultural products and agricultural productsfutures price appear a larger gap with spot price. We can use the mark-to-marketmethod to control the market risk, set up two indicators---warning line and closing line.Case application part choose corn as a example, Using corn price data of Dalian port fordelivery in the past period of time as corn historical price data of the past. Make qualitative and quantitative analysis for corn pledge financing market risk, calculate theVAR value, and introduce the methods of hedging and loan-to-value ratio control.Finally, make a summary of full text and puts forward some suggestions.