Multi-objective Decision-making Model And Empirical Research On The Oil Import Sources Based On Transport Mode

Along with the rapid development of China’s economy, oil plays an importantrole in China energy consumption and economic development, and oil gap is larger.China has already been the world’s second largest oil consumer after the UnitedStates, import dependence increased from6.6%in1995to56%in2011or so, andis expected to as high as60%in2020. The risk of China’s oil imports increasesalong with import dependence increases，which warns China’s energy security, andeven national security. So analysis of the international oil market price fluctuation ofthe risk is very important, especially for the quantitative risk, can make people moreintuitive and more accurate understanding the existence of the risk and size.For big oilimporting countries, in addition to the risk of oil imports, cheap freight, stabletransportation line, good transport capacity and so on, all are one country oil importsafety and energy of the importance of safety protection. Comprehensiveconsideration of the oil import costs and risks, seek for the optimal share of oil importthree modes of transportation (pipeline, railway, ocean).In the very high oil importdependence of the Middle East, Africa region, guaranteeing our country’s oil importsecurity, provide good environment to our country economic and Politics stability.This article firstly expounded oil imports such as oil price risk, oil source riskand transportation problem of domestic and foreign research status, summarized thedeficiency. Secondly,in the present situation of China’s oil imports on the basis ofanalysis, through the GARCH-VaR model measure China’s oil price volatility risk anduse HHA measure oil source risk, and based on this, add oil import costs, usingmulti-objective decision theory, construct a oil import transportation means decisionmodel which has three goals based on the minimum cost of imports,minimum import pricesrisk and minimum import source risk, and according to the actual situation in ourcountry, related to the parameter, then to simplify the situation model, seek for theoptimal share of oil import three modes of transportation (pipeline, railway, ocean) in allsorts of circumstances, and discuss them with the change of the transportation withprice change. Finally, using the model, further studied the oil import system, putforward the Suggestions to establish and perfect the system of China’s oil imports. Above all, through the transportation cost, import risk analysis our country importoil not only has great economic significance but also plays an important role on ourcountry in the policy of the energy imports.