Logistic Curve Parameter Estimation Method And Applied Research

With the rapid development of society, many of the statistical model widely used in economics, medicine, clinical trials, and many other areas of consumer sustainable practical problems, Logistic curve model is a statistical model and he has been widely used, it is a data analysis and processing methods in medicine, economics, epidemiology has been widely used. Such as using it to identify the risk factors for a disease, and based on these risk factors found to predict the probability of occurrence of the disease, and that we can according to the model to determine a probability that the disease who have much.Logistic curve model was proposed in 1838 by the Belgian mathematician verhulst, since then, people logistic curve model for research and applications, making logistic curve model occupies in agriculture, economics, biotechnology, medicine, epidemiology, etc. important position. Articles for parameter estimation logistic curve is studied, proposed a new method of parameter estimation, and the combined image of the model is a reasonable explanation.Logistic curve model equation expression is:After a simple deformation we use cubic spline interpolation function derivation instead logistic curve derivative values at this point, the equation is a linear function of the form of the deformation, then the principle of least squares, linear regression approach to the three parameters estimate, estimation of three parameters we use the matlab software, prior to the first use of three-point or four-point method logistic curve model for k the estimate, after using least square method and linear regression method to estimate parameters for two a and r,Because estimates a and r of the parameters and dependt on k,makes this method somewhat lacking in precision, this paper, we have chosen examples of consumer durables sales forecasts, population growth projections, the epidemiological risk factors to predict, from the example we have chosen and the results of the analysis, we can see, the use of the proposed method can predict sales for consumer durables, population growth projections and epidemiological risk factors for prediction has a better basis. Parameter estimation method of parameter estimation method proposed in this paper than the previous estimate of the value obtained by fitting higher accuracy, better fitting effect, more effective analysis and forecasting for instance,has a wide range of application.Ariticles and verified by experiment and the corresponding analysis and comparison, it also underlined the effectiveness and feasibility of this method.